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    Real Statistics

    Jul 31 • Businesses, Developing Economies, International Trade and Finance, Macroeconomic Measurement, Thinking Economically • 451 Views

    How high is Mount Everest?

    No one really knows. China says 29,017 feet, Nepal, 29,028, and the National Geographic Society, 29,035. We don’t even agree about sea level. The U.S. uses the St. Lawrence River in Quebec. But the U.K uses another baseline. And other countries use a local reference point. Furthermore, the Himalayas are rising by several millimeters each year. As one scientist said, “The idea of saying, ‘The height of Everest is this, is an anachronism.'”

    The Economic Lesson

    Similar to Mount Everest’s height, a “Country of Origin” statistic no longer is accurate. A Toyota Camry is primarily American while a Ford pick-up is not. The Made in China iPhone has components from 9 countries. Learjet is based in Wichita, Kansas and owned by a Canadian company, Bombardier. For the origin of the Learjet 85:

    1. wings: Belfast
    2. horizontal and vertical stabilizers: Mexico
    3. engines: Canada
    4. fuselage: Mexico
    5. electrical system: Mexico

    An Economic Question: How might balance of trade statistics be affected by more accurate data?

     

     

     

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    Fried Chicken Wings

    Jul 30 • Businesses, Demand, Supply, and Markets, Households, Labor, Macroeconomic Measurement, Thinking Economically • 533 Views

    When the NFL lockout ended, dry cleaners, ticket-takers and souvenir sellers rejoiced. But not chickens.

    According to the National Chicken Council, on Super Bowl Sunday 2011, we consumed 1.25 billion chicken wings. Joe Sanderson, CEO of the 4th largest poultry seller, said that 12% of his sales related to Sunday football. And, before the NFL lockout ended, the Buffalo Wild Wings restaurant chain offered 6 free wings to all who signed their Facebook “save our season” petition. (They will give free chicken wings to 45,000 people.)

    Think of a ripple. The NFLPA estimates that 3739 jobs are created by each game. On game days, the ticket takers, parking lot attendants and souvenir sellers are busy. Beyond, the sports bars, hotels and gas stations get more business. Municipalities collect additional revenue. And, Roser’s Fine Dry Cleaning could again clean New Orleans Saints uniforms. This Bloomberg Business article also tells about Ticketmaster sales spiking the day the lockout ended, Bud Light’s connection, and TV ad sales.

    The Economic Lesson

    Peanut butter and jelly, Kindles and eBooks, razors and razor blades are all complementary goods because a change in the price or a change in demand for one affects the other. If the price of a Kindle drops, then demand for eBooks could rise.

    Similarly, the elimination of Sunday football would have had a devastating impact on the demand for chicken wings.

    An Economic Question: Knowing that certain goods and services are complementary, retailers use one item to increase the sales of a second good or service. Which examples might come to mind?

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    An Excellent Budget Plan

    Jul 29 • Behavioral Economics, Economic Debates, Government, Households, Macroeconomic Measurement • 445 Views

    A debt reduction suggestion.

    Let’s use what the President’s budget commission suggests. Proposing legislation that will mandate restraint and discourage political opportunism, they are bipartisan. And, they get people on the right and the left agitated which means that everyone is sacrificing something.

    Called “The Moment of Truth,” The National Committee on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform has a 65 page blueprint for our fiscal future. They deal with reducing annual spending. They have suggestions for preserving Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. They would stabilize debt by 2014. And, citing important incentives and legislative restraints, they understand how to make the Congress and each of us work toward fiscal responsibility. (They even suggest a 3-year pay freeze for members of Congress!)

    Specifically, they deal with 6 categories:

    1. Discretionary spending cuts
    2. Comprehensive tax reform
    3. Health care cost containment
    4. Mandatory savings (like cutting agricultural subsidies)
    5. Social Security
    6. Process changes (like measuring inflation more accurately)

    The plan is excellent.

    The Economic Lesson

    Discussing the budget, people always seem to refer to the GDP. Here is why. Because the GDP is the total dollar value of the goods and services we produce during one year, it reflects our affluence. So, just like you look at your income from what you produce when you decide what you can spend, the government can look at the value of what it produces.

    The President’s budget commission believes we can afford to spend 21% of our GDP. It also says that the deficit, the amount by which annual spending exceeds annual revenue, should be close to 2.3% of GDP. (p. 16)

    An Economic Question: Using this NY Times interactive graphic, specifically, how would you cut discretionary spending?

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    The Power of the Market: Part 2

    Jul 28 • Businesses, Demand, Supply, and Markets, Developing Economies, Economic Debates, Environment, Government, Households, International Trade and Finance, Macroeconomic Measurement, Regulation, Thinking Economically • 349 Views

    World oil demand has hit a new high. But not from everyone.

    Called the “New World” and “Old World” by economist Ed Yardeni, you can see through his graphs, the divide in world oil demand. China, India, Brazil and other emerging economies want increasingly more while the U.S., Japan and Western Europe do not.

    Still though, with total demand moving upward, so too is the price per barrel. Well beyond its recent June 24 low of $105.52, you can see here, that the price of North Sea Brent is close to $118. Interesting that on June 23, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced its member nations would begin releasing 60 million barrels from their strategic petroleum reserves (SPR) to offset potential price increases from a Libyan disruption.

    Are 2 million barrels a day for 30 days making a difference? Or, is the market too powerful? You can decide.

    The Economic Lesson

    The SPR release shifts the supply curve. Emerging economies have moved the demand curve. When demand moves further to the right than supply, price rises.

    You can read more about oil here and here.

    An Economic Question: Dr. Yardeni suggests that when world oil demand is up 2.5%, world GDP will rise by 5%. Why might he have connected the 2 numbers?

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    The Power of the Market: Part 1

    Jul 27 • Businesses, Demand, Supply, and Markets, Developing Economies, Government, Macroeconomic Measurement, Regulation, Thinking Economically • 562 Views

    Maybe the market is more powerful than the Congress.

    First, some history

    Hoping that farmers would earn a living wage, in 1933, the U.S. government decided to subsidize crop prices. The goal was “parity,” a level of purchasing power that equaled what farmers could buy during their golden age, 1909-1914. To achieve parity farmers could receive a check that elevated market price to a target price.

    Fast forward to 2011.

    Farm income is soaring. Consequently, for many commodities, target prices are way below the market price. The target price of corn is $2.63 while its market price is near $7. For soybeans, $6 is the target and $13 the market. Translated into federal spending, farm subsidy totals are down by one half, from $22 billion to $11 billion.

    Why? The power of the market. 

    The Economic Lesson

    Involving demand and supply, a market is a process that determines price and quantity.  For corn, you have ethanol, emerging economies, and China on the demand side. They are shoving corn’s demand curve to the right. No one person or government is making the decision. It is all about the interaction of many consumers and many producers.

    So, when the Congress says it wants to cut spending, maybe the market can help.

    An Economic Question: How would crop subsidies affect the quantity that the market supplies and demands?

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