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    Becoming Ben Bernanke

    Aug 8 • Economic Thinkers, Money and Monetary Policy • 189 Views

    This was fun! A 5 minute Federal Reserve simulation lets you target the fed funds rate for 16 hypothetical quarters and then watch the inflation and unemployment impact. It all appears manageable until a surprise news headline appears.

    The site also links to a decade by decade look at monetary policy through a video summary of key events and graphs of the CPI, real GDP, the fed funds rate, and unemployment. Very well done.

    Knowing that current unemployment is at 9.5% and inflation is close to 1% for a 12 month period, during the simulation you can experiment with your own policy ideas.

    The Economic Lesson

    Described by British economist A.W.H. Phillips, a Phillips Curve depicts an inverse relationship between unemployment and inflation. While the original Phillips curve referred to wage inflation, it soon came to represent the connection between unemployment and price inflation. Soon also, economists such as Milton Friedman and Edmund Phelps challenged the validity of the original curve as did 1970s stagflation.

    Typical monetary policy response to accelerating inflation is to target higher interest rates; diminishing unemployment would require lower interest rates. It all sounds rather logical until you look at what can really happen. 

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    Working Moms: The Good and the Bad News

    Aug 7 • Economic Thinkers, Gender Issues, Households, Labor, Macroeconomic Measurement • 131 Views

    Two recent studies about working moms give good news and bad.

    The good first. If you work during your child’s first year, and you contribute considerably to the family income, or if your child care is very good, or if you are sensitive to your children, then his or her cognitive development will equal those of stay-at-home moms.   

    Now the bad. As a working mother with an MBA, 15 years after graduation, “lesser job experience, greater career discontinuity and shorter work hours…,” will contribute to a gender pay gap of 25%. By contrast, perhaps as illustrated by Elena Kagan, Sonia Sotomayor, and Condaleezza Rice, women whose careers resembled those of men earned equal pay. 

    The Economic Lesson

    Labor force statistics include participation rates. Defined as a statistic that compares the size of the labor force to its potential total, female participation rates for June, 2010 were 58.5% while male participation rates were close to 71.3%.

    The labor force includes all people who are employed, who are looking for a job, and who are 16 or older. There are close to 155 million people in the U.S. labor force. 

    Average gender wage gap differentials for different occupations are noted in an earlier econlife post. For different countries, you can look here.

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    An Amazing Unemployment Visual

    Aug 6 • Businesses, Labor, Macroeconomic Measurement • 180 Views

    Wow! Changing the color of individual counties from light to dark, month by month, this graphic actively displays how the U.S. moved from a 4.6% unemployment rate during January 2007 to 9.7% during May, 2010. In 30 seconds it tells more than pages of analysis.

    The Economic Lesson

    According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with a civilian noninstitutional labor force of 154.4 million people, 9.7% represents 14.97 million individuals. More specifically, the unemployment rate for men over 16 years old is 10.5%. For women over 16 years old, it is 8.3%. 

     

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    Who Do You Trust?

    Aug 5 • Businesses, Economic Debates, Economic History, Economic Thinkers, Government, Macroeconomic Measurement, Thinking Economically • 136 Views

    Moderated by late show host Johnny Carson, there once was a TV show called “Who Do You Trust?” Initially aired during 1957, the quiz show had husbands (interesting–1950s version would have only husbands making the decision) deciding whether they or their wives would answer questions.

    With the current debate about the impact of stimulus spending, I thought of the show’s title. Based on “who” we trust, many of us select who we want to answer, “Is the stimulus working?”

    For those who trust the Keynesian outlook, Moody’s Mark Zandi and Princeton economist Alan Blinder provide the right answers. In a recent paper, Zandi and Blinder conclude that the financial bailout had the greatest impact. Saying that the Fed’s asset purchases and bank stress tests were critical for the current economic improvement, they point out that stimulus spending alone would not have sufficed. However, they say that the complementary character of both sets of policies tended “to reinforce each other.”

    By contrast, those who question the impact of government spending will gravitate toward Stanford economist John Taylor and Harvard’s H. Gregory Mankiw. Commenting on the Blinder/Zandi paper, Dr. Taylor says that they use an old Keynesian model for hypothetical data input. Never, he says, do they use current data on what actually happened–just what was supposed to have occurred.

    There is lots more to read on both sides. For the Keynesians’ view, you might want to look at what the Councll of Economic Advisors and Paul Krugman have said. To read more of the market dominated perspective, Arnold Kling, Tyler Cowen, and Russell Roberts have noted their opinions. 

    The Economic Lesson

    To simplify our market economy, economists like to draw a circular flow model with 2 concentric circles. As shown here, essentially, resources and goods and services move around the outer circle while dollars occupy the inner circle.

    The key, though, is that the Keynesians believe that during a recession we have to draw a huge government rectangle to help the other two. By contrast, those who believe the market should function with little outside help will depict the circular flow model with minimal governmental influence.

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    Social Insecurity: Part 2

    Aug 4 • Government, Macroeconomic Measurement • 158 Views

    The average social security check received by a retired grandma is $1169. Multiply that by 35 million recipients, add to it other social security obligations, and this year, you have more money leaving than entering the social security “bank account”.

    Next year everything should be okay but not for long. The crisis starts in 2016 when the system will be swamped by baby boomers. What should be done? The Congressional Budget Office has suggested 5 categories of solutions: 1) Change taxes. 2) Change benefits. 3) Pay more to low income earners. 4) Raise the retirement age further. 5) Reduce cost-of-living adjustments.

    The Economic Lesson

    Hoping to give “ownership” to all of us, the creators of Social Security designed a universal pay-as-you-go program in 1935. When we “pay-as-you-go”, we are giving today’s workers payroll tax dollars to today’s social security recipients.

    Looking at the potential problems, should social security remain a universal program with common “ownership?”

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