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    Population Pyramids

    May 20 • Demand, Supply, and Markets, Developing Economies, Gender Issues, Households, International Trade and Finance, Labor, Macroeconomic Measurement, Thinking Economically • 686 Views

    These graphics are wonderful!

    Shaped sort of like a triangle because the elderly population is so small, this population pyramid for Egypt illustrates a youth bulge of men and women who are 15 to 29. The “bulge” represents 28% of the population–maybe 23 million people. For Jordan, Algeria, Iran, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and Bahrain the demographic picture is similar.

    But the U.S. is different. Our graph has a baby boomer bulge. As you might expect, population pyramids for other developed nations resemble the U.S. graph. (You can open “Demographic Indicators” at this OECD site to compare.)

    The Economic Lesson

    What does a youth bulge imply? It takes us to jobs. The Washington Post reminds us that when freedom is limited, unemployment among so many young people fuels instability.

    By contrast, for the U.S. and other nations with an aging population, entitlement support for the elderly is the challenge.

    An Economic Question: We know that population matters…but how? How might the size of a country’s population and the relative size of its different age groups affect GDP growth (the value of a country’s production of goods and services during one year)?

     

     

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    Econ Fun

    May 19 • Economic Debates, Economic Humor, Economic Thinkers, Government • 680 Views

    The second Keynes/Hayek rap video, “The Fight of the Century” just arrived. Like the first one, it focuses on the never ending debate between economists who want more government and those who believe in less. In this Econtalk discussion, the writers discuss their content decisions. And here, during a Marketplace segment, a briefer background description of the video is presented.

    Also, you might enjoy looking at Merle Hazard’s songs which now include “The Greek Debt Song” and “Inflation or Deflation.”

    Explaining interest rates in the U.S., this Paul Solman PBS report takes us to Zimbabwe, Japan and Merle Hazard.

    Finally, here is the Freakonomics movie trailer with several economic insights.

    The Economic Lesson

    Perhaps economics need not be the dismal science as described by Thomas Carlyle in 1849. 

    An Economic Question: In “The Fight of the Century,” Hayek says, “We brought out the shovels and we’re still in a ditch… still digging, don’t you think it’s time for a switch…”

    Saying the Great Recession ended in 2009, Keynes replies, ” I deserve credit. Things could have been worse. All the estimates prove it-I’ll quote chapter and verse.

    Your economic policy preference? Bottom up (Hayek) or top down (Keynes)? 

     

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    An Optional Income Tax

    May 18 • Economic Debates, Government, Households, Innovation, Macroeconomic Measurement • 832 Views

    What if you could decide whether to pay an income tax?

    Boston University economist Laurence Kotlikoff has a plan that gives us a choice. His basic message, though, is that Congress had better start to think creatively because our current system is “dysfunctional.” With a new approach, we can create better incentives.

    Hoping to prove that neither liberal nor conservative ideas will work, he starts by explaining why an income tax and a sales tax are similar. Both affect our purchasing power and purchasing decisions. One just happens beforehand because it limits what we can spend while the other is after because it makes purchases more expensive. You can read his 3 billion steak example (!) here.

    He calls his plan the purple tax because it combines a red state philosophy (with revenue primarily coming from a sales tax instead of an income tax) and a blue state approach (dependence on an income tax for most revenue). Red + Blue = Purple. The purple tax plan lets people decide whether they want to pay a sales tax or a “wealth” tax. You can see the details here.

    The Economic Lesson

    Sometimes, when you look at something different, you can better judge something that is familiar. By considering the purple tax, you can see our current tax system as just an alternative approach.

    The most typical tax approaches include revenue coming from individual income, corporate income, and the VAT. Smaller categories are estate taxes, capital gains, sales taxes, and tariffs.

    An Economic Question: The proposal for the purple tax plan says that it will “help the economy save, grow, produce jobs, and deliver high wages.” After looking at a summary here or the plan here, decide whether you agree.

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    Bailout Fatigue

    May 17 • Demand, Supply, and Markets, Economic Debates, Economic History, Economic Thinkers, Financial Markets, Government, International Trade and Finance • 590 Views

    Yesterday, in a 94-0 vote, the U.S. Senate said it had bailout fatigue. No, they were not referring to Fannie Mae or General Motors. They meant Greece.

    This is the connection:

    By selling government securities, Greece had borrowed money to fund massive spending. When it appeared that Greece might not pay back the money they borrowed, they received bailout money.

    Here the U.S. enters the picture. Approximately 2/3 of the Greek bailout money came from the European Union and 1/3 from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a leading member of the IMF, U.S. money is a part of the $40 billion that so far has been allocated to the Greek bailout

    This takes me to 2 questions:

    1. How much money is involved? This 2009 congressional research document indicates the outlay is very small although a larger loan guarantee to the IMF could be involved.

    2. If one purpose of the IMF is to preserve financial stability, wouldn’t nations with troubled finances most need their help? 

    The Economic Lesson

    At the Bretton Woods (New Hampshire) Conference, in 1944, as World War II was ending, the IMF was proposed. The next year, it was established. With 29 original members, the IMF’s basic goal was worldwide financial stability and cooperation. During 1947, France was the first country to borrow from the IMF. (John Maynard Keynes attended the Bretton Woods Conference.)

    An Economic Question: Explain why you support or oppose the Senate vote.

     

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    Looking at the Debt Ceiling

    May 16 • Government, Households • 533 Views

    Today, at this moment, we might be hitting the debt ceiling.

    During the past 11 years, Congress has voted to raise the debt ceiling 10 times. In 2000, the ceiling was approximately $6 trillion; in 2011, it was just above $14 trillion. The whole story is here, in a congressional research report.

    Now, Congress has to vote again. But first, they have to decide if and how spending cuts will relate to a debt ceiling agreement. House Speaker John Boehner has proposed at least $2 trillion in cuts that would be “achieved on a time frame no longer than the life of the debt-limit increase.”

    What is $2 trillion? Divided equally among everyone in the U.S., it is approximately $6,666.66. (Where Does the Money Go? Your Guided Tour to the Federal Budget Crisis, p. 46).

    The Economic Lesson

    In terms of the federal budget, this excellent Washington Post federal budget interactive chart gives us some idea of what $2 trillion means. Total annual spending is $3.7 trillion. $2 trillion would be close to 2 1/2 times what we spend annually on Social Security ($770 billion a year) or 25 times the international affairs budget ($75 billion a year). For other spending categories, you can look here.

    An Economic Question: Citing revenue and spending, explain why the debt ceiling had to be increased 3 times between 2008 and 2009. (Hint: the recession).

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