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Tag Archives: Bill Gates

Unless We Look More Closely at Women in the Global Labor Force, We See Only the Tip of the Iceberg.

My story starts yesterday with a Penn Professor of Astronomy and Astrophysics. Explaining that an image of the history of the universe could emerge from two celestial bodies, he added that similarly, we could describe the US economy through Warren Buffett and Bill Gates.

Thinking about Buffett and Gates rather than the universe, my first response was, “No.” These men are outliers, unusually successful, exceedingly affluent. But then, he began to expand and I realized he might be right.

As an investor, Warren Buffett represents the sophisticated financial infrastructure that facilitates transactions. He reminds us of the current and past role of financial intermediaries who fuel  business expansion by pairing savers and borrowers. Within a developed economy, a Warren Buffett can receive an education, start a business and attract investors.

With Bill Gates, we can go to technology. As an entrepreneur, he innovated, mass produced, and contributed to an expanding information infrastructure. More than goods, services are what he produces.

Perhaps then, the Buffett and Gates stories are just tips of an iceberg that reflect US economic growth.

Previous stages of economic growth?

  • Colonial barter.
  • Early 19th century transportation infrastructure of canals and railroads begins to create a national market.
  • Mid to late 19th century capital goods and financial foundation from new industries like railroads, steel and oil.
  • Early 20th century consumer goods from new industries like the auto.
  • 1930s depression and more government.
  • Our contemporary services dominated economy.

Sources and Resources: My thanks to Penn’s Professor Mark Devlin. His cosmology research is fascinating.

Note: This post was edited after it appeared.

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Astronomy might help us understand US history according to biographer Walter Isaacson. We just need to think about binary systems in which 2 separately orbiting stars “are linked because of their gravitational interaction.”

The tension between Hamilton and Jefferson was his first example. One for a national bank, the other against, one for strong central government, the other said no. In separate orbits, they influenced each other and the country.

For Jobs and Gates, Isaacson says the connection was similar. As the mind and passion behind Apple, Steve Jobs was intuitive, a romantic, a perfectionist who focused on design and usability. Meanwhile, Bill Gates led Microsoft methodically, a natural at computer coding, disciplined, practical. Again, we have 2 very different men with different views of the world who affected each other and us.

And now, Pew Research has reported their newest conclusions about our political polarity and an economic binary system again seems to have evolved.

Especially for 5 economic issues, Pew tells us that the “values gap” between Republicans and Democrats has increased. Numerically, the values gap is the percent reflecting how much Republicans and Democrats disagree. For example, asked if the government should take care of people who cannot take care of themselves, because 75% of all Democrats and 40% of all Republicans said “yes,” the values gap was  35.

This table, based on their study when it began and now, displays the average size of the values gap for multiple questions in each category.

1987 2012
Social safety net 23 41
Environment 5 39
Labor Unions 20 37
Equal opportunity 17 33
Gov’t. scope and perf. 6 33

 

With Republicans and Democrats forming a binary system, how might future legislation display the impact of their “gravitational interaction?”

The entire Pew Report is here and Walter Isaacson looks at Gates and Jobs in Steve Jobs, Chapter 16.

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In Las Vegas, the 2010 World Series of Poker was composed of 32,000 players and 57 separate tournaments. For the final event, $9 million was at stake. Freakonomics economist Steve Levitt and U. of Chicago law professor Thomas Miles studied the poker world series to determine whether luck or skill created winners.

Their conclusion? Poker is a game of skill.

The best players have more than a 30% return on their investment (ROI). Average players? The ROI is -15%. Translated into dollars and cents, that means the return to skill, per player, per event averaged over $1,200. For the less skilled, the loss was more than $400. (The ROI compared the tournament fees to amounts won or lost.)

Our bottom line?  Similar to poker, in business, skill matters most. Using Bill Gates and Southwest Airlines as examples, this NY Times essay illustrates that skill, discipline, and knowledge turn good and bad luck into success.

The Economic Lesson

The NY Times piece says yes, Bill Gates was lucky. However, Mr. Gates was successful because his skills, decisions and willingness to persevere optimally converged. As a lesson for all aspiring entrepreneurs, Bill Gates depended on a lot more than luck.

An Economic Question: Which characteristics might be necessary for a successful entrepreneur?

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In a  wonderful NYC Radio Lab podcast about success, Malcolm Gladwell also explains why genius is closely related to love.

Recorded at the  92nd Street Y in NYC, writer Malcolm Gladwell and Radio Lab host Robert Shulwich preceded their conclusions about genius with reasons that people are successful. Gladwell began with a list of birth dates for Canadian hockey players. Pointing out that 17 of a group of 25 were born between January and April, he said the reason was the cut off date for children’s hockey leagues. With a January 1st cut off date, the boys who just missed the deadline were the biggest and oldest in the next class. The result? They were the best, got reinforced as the best, and excelled at hockey.

Similarly fortuitous, Microsoft co-founder Bill Gates attended a private school whose students were given the opportunity to use a computer long before before PCs and Apples existed. As a result, he knew when mainframe computer time was available in the middle of the night at a university and, as a teenager, regularly snuck out of his home to use it.

And this takes us to love. Not only did Bill Gates have an opportunity but he loved what he was doing. According to Malcolm Gladwell, most of us are successful and even rise to the genius level because of more than brains. It often is a combination of luck, talent, and love.

Malcolm Gladwell also looked at success in a 2008 New Yorker Magazine article. Commenting on football players, teachers, and financial advisors, he discusses how tough it is to predict success. People can earn the right degrees, function well during interviews, and perform optimally in similar situations. Still, selecting the person who will be truly successful in a job happens less frequently than we might expect.

The Economic Lesson

In our mixed economy, with the market and government both affecting production and distribution, success is nurtured through a variety of incentives. Starting with demand and supply, many of the the market’s incentives focus on self-interest. Through taxes, spending, and regulatory policy, government can target incentives more specifically to shape our behavior. Consequently, aren’t the market and government providing a definition of success?

And then, we can return to Malcolm Gladwell with his recipe for achieving success and his observation that success is tough to predict.

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