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Tag Archives: commodity prices

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What would make you switch what you eat every day?

The Indonesian government is using an ad campaign to try to get people to change their daily diet. Their slogan is, “One Day No Rice.”

With per person consumption at 275 pounds of rice a year, Indonesians are huge rice eaters. McDonald’s serves a side of rice for 35 cents. A typical Indonesian meal could be rice with a side of meat and vegetables.

Now, with the price of rice having risen (although the UN said the price did not go up during March and that supply was considerable), the Indonesian government hopes to reverse the price trend by decreasing demand. Less rice, though, means more of something else. They are suggesting cassava. But I wonder whether that can work. You might want to look here to see how China is affecting the price of cassava.

The Economic Lesson

Indonesian rice policy seems to be fighting the law of demand. According to the law of demand, price and quantity demanded are inversely related. Higher price and we want less; lower price, we are willing and able to buy more.

Let’s assume that people do eat less rice. Then, demand shifts to the left and price descends. You can predict what happens next. And, the story gets even more complicated when we look at US rice subsidies.

Maybe the only true solution is to let price rise. Your opinion?

 

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One farmer told the NY Times, “It’s going to be cotton stalks everywhere.”

With cotton prices soaring, acreage in Texas and other Southern states that had been used for wheat or corn now has cotton growing. 

The result? A smaller increase in the U.S. corn and wheat crops; and much more cotton. The Times calls it an “acreage war” between the crops that clothe us and those that feed us.

The Economic Lesson

This is classic supply and demand. For cotton, the increase in supply will eventually push price down. Meanwhile, for corn and wheat, as supply is less than it would have been, price remains elevated.

On the demand side, with these supply curves moving, the quantity demanded will change. For cotton, the search has begun for alternative fabrics. And, as we previously noted, when crops get higher prices, so too does the land on which they are grown.

Consequently, even corn farmers are happy that cotton’s price is high.

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On November 10, 2009, the price of 1 pound of cotton was 59.2 cents. A year later it was $1.02 and now, it is close to $1.90.

For many of us, the result will be more expensive jeans, more polyester, and smaller buttons. 7 For all Mankind and North Face said prices would probably be higher next year. The Jones Group CEO, owner of Anne Klein and Nine West, said that an $80 jacket could experience a $15 price increase.

We also might see more organic cotton products. In the Alabama town that used to be called “The Official Sock Capital of the World,” one factory switched to organic cotton. Make a more upscale product and people might accept the price increase. Others just had to close because they could not compete.

You can see how the impact of more expensive cotton will ripple from cotton fields to fabric factories, to designers, to synthetics, to retailers and to Congress because opposition to cotton subsidies has intensified. Even Ben Bernanke might have something to say.

The Economic Lesson

The cotton story is classic Econ 101 1/2.

On the supply side, events have shifted the supply curve to the left. We started with less supply because of depleted inventories during the recession. Then, bad weather in cotton producing nations like Pakistan, hoarding in China, and export restrictions in India have further diminished supply. In addition, when biofuel commodities started to rise in price, some farmers shifted acreage away from cotton.

The result? Because the upward sloping supply curve shifts to the left, price rises.

But then, suppliers try to cut costs and high prices attract more cotton growers. Lululemon Athletica, for example, has moved factories from China to Vietnam and Cambodia because of cheaper labor. Demand for cotton diminishes as suppliers try new fabric combinations. Quantity demanded for cotton will rise when supply increases. Ultimately, the market could take care of the problem.

 

 

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