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Tag Archives: deficit commission

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Using data for 2009 from death certificates in all 50 states, the national Centers for Disease Control has concluded that we are living longer. A male infant’s projected life span has risen .2 years to 75.7 while a female infant’s life expectancy is up .1 years to 80.6. An interesting chart in the report notes projected longevity for ages 0-100. Females at age 100 are estimated as having 2.2 years left. 65-year old males have a projected life span of 82.3.

Living longer, though, means that Social Security will need more money unless changes are made. Proposals from the deficit commission appointed by President Obama include the following (pp. 48-53):

  • Gradually increase the age that we start to receive Social Security benefits.
  • Gradually increase Social Security taxes.
  • Decrease what higher earners receive.
  • Encourage more personal retirement saving.

The Economic Lesson

The future of Social Security takes us to two basic concerns.

  1. Life expectancy: When Social Security was created in 1935, the average lifespan was 64 and benefits could begin at age 65. Now, life expectancy can extend beyond 80.
  2. Ratio of workers to beneficiaries: Called pay-as-you-go, the Social Security system has current workers funding retirees’ benefits. Because of the baby boomers, the worker/retiree ratio is plunging. In 1950 there were 16 workers for every beneficiary and now it is 3:1. The projection for 2025 is a ratio of 2.3 workers for every retiree.

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When your Grandma gets her yearly physical, the doctor gets a check from the government. Did you ever wonder, though, who decides how much?

Because she had to sign up for Medicare at 65, the market did not decide the price and neither did her doctor. Instead, The Wall Street Journal tells us it was RUC.

RUC????

The Relative Value Scale Update Committee

Composed of 29 physicians, RUC  provides a suggested price list to the federal commission that creates the Medicare Physician Fee Schedule. The WSJ says that 90% of the recommendations are followed. 

Rather than the market, a committee selects the prices that convey information and incentives. Your opinion?

The Economic Lesson

Why should we care about Grandma and the doctor? Because Medicare spending now is close to 12% of the federal budget. With 30 million or so baby boomers expected to pour into Medicare during the next 10 years, and 40 more million close behind, spending will skyrocket.

What to do? Called “The Moment of Truth,” President Obama’s deficit commission report suggests that instead of pursuing “phantom savings,” Congress should implement “common-sense reforms to physician payments, cost-sharing, malpractice law, prescription drug costs, government-subsidized medical education, and other sources.” You can look at the report here.

 

 

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Topping its front page with “CUT, RAISE, RAISE, LOWER, REPEAL, SCRAP, CUT, CUT,” The Wall Street Journal told readers some of the new deficit commission’s proposals. 1) For defense spending, the cut would be $100 billion. 2) The Social Security age would rise to 69 by 2075. 3) The gas tax would go up 15 cents. 4) The corporate tax rate would go down to 26%. 5) The alternative minimum tax would be repealed. 6) There would no longer be deductions for mortgages over 500k. 7) The federal work force would be cut by 10%. 8) Farm subsidies would drop by $3 billion.

For each proposal, already, a mountain of pro and con opinions is building. For example, just for changing the Social Security retirement age, the list of arguments on both sides is long because affluence, health, job history, and gender all relate to how Social Security impacts you. Supporters point out that when Social Security was passed in 1935, the average life span was, at 61.7, 3.3 years less than the retirement age. In 2035, 20% of the U.S. population is projected to be 65 or older. Responding, economist Paul Krugman says, “working until you’re 69…is a lot harder…for…Americans who still do physical labor.” Also, he says that high earners live longer.

The Economic Lesson

Defined on Planet Money, a public good is “something that we all need that will make our lives better, but the market will not and cannot provide.”  Podcast examples included lighthouses and autopsies.

Should government pay only for “public goods?” We would not have a deficit problem.

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