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Tag Archives: efficiency

Industries afflicted with Baumol's Disease have slower productivity growth.

Could Cheesecake Factory help us fix our healthcare system?

Touring the kitchen of a Cheesecake Factory restaurant, you would see arrival, refrigeration and storage areas, and cutting, mixing, chopping and combining zones. Preparing the 308 dinner choices that their menu offers, chefs use recipes that specify ingredients and amounts but exclude seasoning and timing details. Essentially divided between prepping and cooking, the kitchen is reminiscent of a well-organized factory.

In a wonderful New Yorker articleAtul Gawande tells us that the people who run the different parts of our healthcare system might learn a lot in a Cheesecake kitchen. Cheesecake and the US healthcare system both offer a vast array of goods and services that are individually produced. Cheesecake has a standardized backend and efficient friendly service. Its prices are relatively low and its consumers appear happy. Meanwhile, the US healthcare system is coping with escalating costs, mediocre service and inconsistent quality.

In his article, Dr. Gawande takes his readers from his dining experience and subsequent research at Cheesecake to one family’s calamitous hospital visit and his own mother’s well-coordinated knee replacement. Successfully, he demonstrates that coordination of many individuals and services is tough, doable and crucial for a restaurant chain that serves 80 million people and also for a medical system.

Dr. Gawande’s suggestions took me to economist Randall Bartlett and his Teaching Company course, “Thinking Like an Economist.”  Discussing Pareto optimality, Dr. Bartlett said that a policy improves social welfare if it makes even just one person better off without making anyone worse off. I wondered whether the suggestions for improving our healthcare system can ever achieve sociologist Vilfredo Pareto’s criteria.

You can read more about Vilfredo Pareto here. I do recommend listening to Dr. Bartlett’s lectures and reading the New Yorker article.

 

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Obama/Biden and Romney/Ryan Issues

Until November 6, at econlife, Mondays will be about presidential election economics.

In 2004, when President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers chairman, Harvard professor Greg Mankiw, was lambasted for saying, “… I think outsourcing is a growing phenomenon, but it’s something that we should realize is probably a plus for the economy in the long run, ” politicians, left and right, distanced themselves from his position.

Fast forward to 2012. Still, no one wants to be called an outsourcer. And still we are focusing on the politics of outsourcing rather than its economics.

Here are the economics:

A call center in India or an Apple assembly plant in China are examples of  (offshore) outsourcing when firms send jobs abroad that could be done by domestic manufacturing and service workers. (Please note that here, when we refer to outsourcing, we mean offshore outsourcing.)

The Congressional Research Service tells us that the macroeconomic slowdown, not outsourcing, is primarily responsible for high unemployment.

Most economists believe that the US economy benefits from globalization. As a nation, incomes will rise, goods will be cheaper, and corporate profits will increase whenever outsourcing leads to greater efficiency for producing goods and services.

But others accurately point out that outsourcing not only means job losses but can take place on an “uneven” playing field where other nations’ subsidies unfairly attract US businesses.

The bottom line: After discussing what we do know, most research on outsourcing concludes with, “We need to know more.” No one has gathered sufficient empirical data to be sure of the specific impact of offshore outsourcing.

However, economists like Princeton’s Alan Blinder suggest that we have only seen the tip of the iceberg. In the future, with a sufficiently sizable proportion of the economy potentially being outsourced, we will face a massive shift in how we do business.

Maybe that is what our presidential candidates and the media should be discussing.

Also, I hope they will remember what David Ricardo said about international trade. Explaining the concept of comparative advantage, he told us that we elevate everyone’s well-being when nations produce what they are relatively best at.

For example, what if you can teach a class skillfully or mow your lawn expertly while your neighbor can mow the lawn mediocrely or get paid minimum wage at a fast food restaurant? Then you should teach, she should mow and everyone will be better off. The reason? You sacrifice too much by not teaching when you mow and she would sacrifice too much if she earned less at her fast food job.

Varied, there is a wealth of information about outsourcing. Harvard economist Gregory Mankiw co-wrote a paper on the politics and economics of outsourcing and Princeton economist Alan Blinder, looking at “personal” and “impersonal” services and goods discussed how specific jobs might be affected when outsourcing proliferates, and the St. Louis Fed looked at Germany and outsourcing. In addition, here is a recent Congressional Research Service report and a description of the brouhaha about the Mankiw outsourcing statement when he was the CEA chair.

 

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airlines industry...airplanes.16825_3.15a_000002547262XSmall

What does your airline ticket pay for? In order of size, these represent the expenses for a US Airways flight according to WSJ journalist Scott McCartney:

  • Fuel (close to 30%)
  • Salaries (maybe 20%)
  • Buying and leasing planes (16%)
  • Federal taxes (14%)
  • Total maintenance (11%)
  • Other including food, lost luggage, bumping people off flights (9%)

 

WSJ concludes that only 1% is left for profit–a $164 profit for every $16,400 an airline spends.

But, the cost to fly one seat one mile does vary considerably. For Southwest it is 12.96 cents while Delta, at 14.76 cents, is close to 14% more.

Or, we could look at “load factors.” Again, Southwest needs fewer people on a plane than any other airline to exceed its break even point.

This takes us to airline industry profitability:

airline profit margin

From businessinsider.com.

And finally, our graph takes us to Richard Branson: ”How do you become a millionaire? Start as a billionaire and then buy an airline.”

For information on the airline industry, WSJ journalist Scott McCartney is a good columnist to follow. Here and here are McCartney articles I used for airline data while Seeking Alpha, here and here, provided a thorough analysis of the industry. My graph was from Business Insider.

 

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lightbulb

In a 1964 TV commercial, during a pouring contest between 2 young boys, Heinz ketchup was “…too thick and rich to run.” In another ad, Heinz lost an OK Coral duel because it was the “slowest ketchup in the west…east, north and south.”

Now though, Heinz might have a problem.

Trying to develop a super slippery coating that would prevent deep sea oil pipes from clogging, scientists in an MIT lab created LiquiGlide. Used on the surface of a Heinz plastic container, LiquiGlide makes ketchup slide right out.

I suspect Heinz might not want its ketchup to pour more quickly.

However, even if the private cost to Heinz is considerable, citing the time millions of people would save, an economist would look at how the social benefit–the positive externality–is much greater. And that is why this story is about a lot more than ketchup.

Here you can see fast flowing Heinz Ketchup and here, a 1964 Heinz Ketchup race. And, if you are interested in reading about super slippery surfaces, this article describes the work of a Harvard lab.

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16570_3.15a_000002547262XSmall

Closely connected to an airline’s bottom line, speedy boarding means more efficiency. Here you can see the following alternative boarding strategies in action.

Front to back:

  • Least popular.
  • Early boarders block those who follow them.

Back to Front

  • Very popular.
  • Used by Continental, Alaska Airlines and others.

Random:

  • Check-in time is one way to decide boarding sequence.
  • Preferred by academics as one of the fastest approaches.
  • Used by Southwest, American Airlines and others.
  • American Airlines’ flight attendants say it creates confusion.

Rotating Zone

  • Alternating back and front for contiguous groups of seats.
  • Air Tran uses it.

Reverse Pyramid

  • Back-to-front with outside-in.
  • Unused.

Flying Carpet (really?)

  • Unused.
  • Designed by an Australian mechanical engineer.
  • On a carpet with the seats drawn, a passenger stands on his/her own seat. After 20-30 people position themselves on the carpet, that group boards. Because there is no room for seatmates to stand next to each other, boarders automatically are dispersed for optimal boarding.

According to the LA Times, United Airlines believes in “outside-in” while Continental boards “back to front.” Now that they have merged, will they choose one or compromise with a reverse pyramid?

The Economic Lesson

When an airline boards people more rapidly, it is utilizing land, labor and capital more efficiently. Best illustrated by Southwest Airlines, a fast turnaround means fewer airplanes are needed because more flights can be scheduled using the same equipment. Then, the land, labor and capital that might have been used inefficiently can be allocated elsewhere.

An Economic Question: Referring to cost (defined as sacrifice), explain why faster lines benefit buyers and sellers.

 

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