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Tag Archives: entitlement spending

Decisions Have An Opportunity Cost That Require Tradeoffs

Reading about why people have a tough time delaying gratification, I started to think about countries.

First people…

A part of your brain–the insula–becomes more active when faced with an unpleasant task like dieting or seeing your team lose. Two MIT professors discovered that you can add paying with cash to the “unpleasant list” but not credit cards. As one of them said, “The nature of credit cards ensures that your brain is anesthetized against the pain of payment.” The result? You buy a lot more when you postpone payment (and pain) by charging it.

Next, countries…

Countries also have been postponing payment and pain. Greek and Spanish pension obligations will soar during the next 40 years. Currently averaging between 20-30 percent of GDP for most euro zone countries, entitlement spending on public pensions, health care, and unemployment insurance is rising.  Like cash vs. credit, aren’t overextended entitlement programs examples of current pleasure that will generate considerable future pain?

The Bottom Line: Will it ever be politically viable to realign incentives so that current gratification can be delayed in favor of future economic growth?

My facts about the insula and our shopping decisions, and my quotes, came from Jonah Lehrer in Wired and his book, How We Decide (p. 86).  For the graphs and analysis of overextended entitlements, I consulted this NBER working paper. You might also want to look at economist Allan Meltzer’s new book, Why Capitalism.

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In France, a 24 hour workers’ strike brought retirement rights back to the headlines. Saying that a 60 year old retirement age was no longer affordable, French President Sarkozy has proposed moving it up to 62. French workers disagree.

In the U.S., a leader of the Older Women’s League (OWL) reacted angrily to a comment about Social Security from former Senator Alan Simpson. Mr. Simpson is the co-chairman of the recently created National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. Using rather vivid language, Mr. Simpson said that Social Security would not have the future capabiity to continue its current obligations. In an email, OWL responded that Mr. Simpson displayed, “…his clear disrespect for Social Security, women and the American people…”

You can see the dilemma. Our resources are limited. In most eurozone countries and in the U.S. federal spending is skyrocketing. To what extent should we provide support to an aging population?

The Economic Lesson

Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system; today’s workers pay the benefits for today’s recipients. When Social Security began in 1935, there were 42 workers for each beneficiary, life expectancy was close to 62, and benefits began at 65. Today, U.S. life expectancy averages close to 78 and minimum benefits can begin at 62. By 2027, the full benefits age will gradually have risen from 65 to 67. Currently, while there are approximately 3.3 workers for each beneficiary, for 2030 the projection is 2.2.

In France also, and in other OECD countries, the older population is growing and birth rates have diminished. By 2050, if current labor force participation rates remain the same, in Europe, there will be one worker for every retired person.

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