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Tag Archives: equilibrium price

Prices convey information.

What does a price tell you?

Assume that you were going to purchase a GE Advantium 120 microwave oven on Sunday, August 12. Comparing Sears, Best Buy and Amazon’s sellers at 3 a.m., you would have seen, respectively, $899.99, 809.99 and 744.46. At Amazon’s website, the price changed to slightly more than $850 at 5 a.m., it dropped again to their $744.46 low several hours later and then back above $850 at 10 p.m. During that day, Sears kept the same price, Best Buy changed twice and Amazon, 9 times.

Call it dynamic pricing.

The story of dynamic pricing begins with airline deregulation in 1978. American Airlines (although some say Delta) was the first to realize that different classes of passengers were willing and able to pay different fares. Of course they could not ask if someone was planning a vacation or a business trip, but they could snag the business traveler by charging more if the flight was the next day. And so began what they called yield management. Spreading to hotels and cruises, rental car businesses and a host of others, yield management helped many firms increase revenue.

The dynamic pricing version of yield management has the same revenue enhancing goal. As you probably know, all sorts of goods like bicycles, jewelry and detergents are dynamically priced online. One baby clothes vendor changes his prices every 15 minutes because being cheaper than everyone else means he will top the list of price related search results.

But what does this mean? In a market economy, price is a source of information. Prices enable the supply side to assess productivity, to identify cost and to project profits. On the demand side, price can convey quality and affordability. With price changing frequently, the information flow increases.

Or, as one market participant commented, “The long term implication is that a price is no longer a price.”

My sources and other resources: A front page WSJ article, “Don’t Like This Price? Wait a Minute ” was interesting and had this fascinating graphic comparing price changes from Sears, Amazon and Best Buy. In addition, this academic article explains yield management while this more recent study looks at internet dynamic pricing.

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At your local gas station, you might be seeing some sticky prices.

Although barrels of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent Crude have steadily gotten cheaper, the price at the pump has had a less steep downward trajectory. One economic study observed that it took 4 weeks to reflect a crude price increase but 8 weeks to respond when price dropped. In other words, many gas stations take twice as long to react to a declining wholesale price.

Why?

On the demand side, a possibility is reference pricing. When the price of gas is rising, consumers, used to spending less, have a lower “reference price,” like $3.50, and actively try to adhere to it. By contrast, when prices fall, the reference price is higher, maybe $4.00. Consequently, we are delighted that price is below that level and do less comparison shopping.

On the supply side, some stations might have relatively small competitive pressure. If no other nearby station is lowering prices, then everyone can delay. And, if that delay is supported by customer loyalty, then the retailer’s market power becomes even stronger. Sometimes, though, it is not even cost effective to drive onward and search for cheap gas. Here is a web site with an “Is it worth it?” calculator that will let you decide.

And finally, gas prices are not alone. Looking at 77 consumer items, University of Chicago economist Samuel Peltzman concluded that sticky prices are a common phenomenon.

While this MSNBC article for provides an excellent overview of sticky gas prices, here and here you can read the academic literature on “asymmetric price adjustment.” Also, I checked the price of WTI and gasoline between mid-April and mid-June. Crude has dropped by approximately 20% and the price of gas, 11.9%.

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Can a crowd be smarter than an individual? In The Wisdom of Crowds, business columnist James Surowiecki, says “Sometimes, yes.” Starting with a crowd betting on the weight of an ox and ending with the crowd and democracy, Surowiecki looks at “collective intelligence.”

At intrade or Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX), you can decide whether the collective intelligence of the crowd is correct about probable Oscar winners. Participating in a prediction market, someone purchases a “security” that reflects an opinion about a future event. Reflecting the group’s opinion, more purchases push price upward. Currently, in the intrade and HSX futures markets, The Social Network, with the highest price among the nominees, is the front runner.

At the Iowa Electronic Markets run by the University of Iowa Business School faculty, you can even vote on future fed funds rates.

The Economic Lesson

Surowiecki divides “collective intelligence” into 3 categories: cooperation problems, coordination problems, and cognition problems.

Cooperation problems focus on how people work together. The issues they look at include legislative compromise (or gridlock) and getting a large group together for a dinner.

Coordination problems display how many independent individuals impersonally coordinate their behavior. Examples would take us to rush hour traffic and stock markets.

Cognition problems involve information that makes one answer more accurate than another. Predicting future monetary policy, the future weight of an ox, and who will win the Oscars are cognition problems.

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