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Tag Archives: financial crises

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President Obama’s State of the Union address was primarily economic. The euro zone is dealing with an economic crisis. Developing nations are concerned with economic growth.

So, are economists in charge?

An academic study of 1200 policy makers in EU and OECD countries provides some answers. Looking at heads of government, finance ministers and chief central bankers during the past 40 years, researchers concluded the following:

  • During a financial crisis, it is more likely that a political leader will have an economic background.
  • Euro zone prime ministers tend not to have economic training.
  • In left of center governments, after a stock market crash, more government leaders have economic credentials.
  • When a government has been around awhile, its finance ministers tend to have less economic expertise while its central bankers have more.

 

Economic Training of Polcy Makers Economic backgrounds of policymakers

We should conclude by asking if economic expertise leads to better policies. The authors say, not necessarily.

And finally, Friedrich von Hayek would remind us that, “The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design.”

Sources and Resources: A readable analysis of our leaders’ backgrounds, “The Technical Competence of Economic Policy Makers in Developed Democracies” was an interesting paper and the source of the above tables and information. If you prefer a shorter discussion, one possibility is a Washington Post summary or a brief version from its authors at Vox. Also, here is the Nobel Prize talk about Friedrich von Hayek.

Note: The entry was minimally edited after it appeared.

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Rose Bertin was the 18th century Alexander McQueen. As Marie Antoinette’s personal fashion guru, she designed massively skirted ornate gowns and 3-foot high poufy hair styles. More than clothing, though, her designs embodied power, presence and opulence.

In This Time It’s Different, economists Kenneth Rogoff and Carmen Reinhart quote Rose Bertin’s reminder that, “There is nothing new except what is forgotten.” (p. 275)

The Economic Lesson

According to Reinhart and Rogoff, our current financial plight is indeed “nothing new.”

Categories for financial crises (p. xxvi):

  • Sovereign debt defaults
  • Banking
  • Exchange rate
  • High Inflation

Typical pre-crisis warning signs (p. 223):

  • “asset price inflation” (U.S./housing)
  • “rising leverage” (U.S./borrowing)
  • “large sustained current account deficits” (U.S/more imports)
  • “a slowing trajectory of economic growth”

Typical post crisis “aftermath” (p. 224):

  • 6 years for real housing prices to bottom
  • A 3 1/2 year duration for “equity price collapses”
  • Soaring government debt
  • Declining tax revenues
  • Rising sovereign debt interest rates

An Economic Question: Do you believe that government is the problem or the solution when considering a financial crisis?

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