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Tag Archives: free trade

Invention, Profit and Economic Growth

Saying that profit, not necessity is the mother of invention, economic historian John Steele Gordon starts his column in this week’s Barrons. His focus was the 18th century clipper ships that earned people like John Jacob Astor $50,000 for a single voyage between the US and China. Furs went to China, tea returned and, because of the invention of the clipper ship, the voyage was faster than ever before.

More speed, more trips, more profits.

The Gordon column reminded me of a book I always enjoy rereading. In How We Got Here, Andy Kessler looks at a history of technology and markets. Echoing Gordon, Kessler takes the reader through the history of the steam engine. He begins with 18th century English coal mines that flooded because they were below water level. Realizing miners needed something better than their vertical bucket brigade, Thomas Savery invented the Miner’s Friend, a steam powered mechanized pump.

Here we can fast forward, from the first steam engines to the steamboat (yes, there is lots in between). But that gets us back to the clipper ship and again, how the quest for profits leads to invention. When steam power became cheap enough, because of their speed and cargo capacity (10 times more than sailing vessels), steamboats replaced clipper ships. Merchants, whose transport costs could run as high as three-quarters of the price of an exported good, saw their opportunity.

Again, more voyages, higher volume, lower prices, bigger profits and soon, the next invention.

Wouldn’t Adam Smith (mass production) and David Ricardo (free trade) both be smiling?

Sources and Resources: Happily, here you can easily take a look at the Kessler book (my source for steamship stats) while the Gordon article is here. For good brief bios on Smith and Ricardo, the econlib library, here and here, is a handy link.

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Are you paying more for your clothing?

According to NY Times financial journalist Floyd Norris, women’s shirt prices, dresses, sweaters, all that government statisticians consider female “outerwear,” have started to become more expensive. Meanwhile, the women’s “underwear” category reflects a 7.8% annual price spike since 2007.

Explaining the price rise, Mr. Norris suggests that the era of cheap Chinese imports might be coming to an end. And, if it is, the low prices that buoyed our purchasing power during the past 20 years will no longer elevate our standard of living.

The Economic Lesson

Let’s assume that changes in the Chinese economy such as higher wages continue to nudge their export prices upward. And, what if the U.S. Congress successfully pressures the administration to support tariffs on Chinese goods because the yuan is undervalued? Some would say that the inflationary impact is a minus but that tariffs on Chinese goods would lead to additional jobs.

An Economic Question: Do you agree with this 2004 paper from former Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson that says even with the jobs disruption, cheap imports are much more of an economic benefit than tariffs?

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The Panama Canal Project Facilitates World Trade.

The roof of the big-box store near your home could contain fabric that was made in Greensboro, N.C. Transported in rolls that are 12 feet wide and 5,000 yards long, this material is also made in South Korea.

Until now, U.S. textile firms could compete against a cheaper South Korean product through faster delivery and customer service. Explained by the NY Times, the U.S./South Korea free trade agreement that Congress just passed would eliminate any advantage U.S. firms had created because lower tariffs will mean even lower prices. 

Here in a past econlife post is more about KORUS (Korean-U.S. Free Trade Agreement). And here, the U.S. government presents the benefits of free trade and details our free trade pacts.

The Economic Lesson

Free trade always seems to take us to the visible and the invisible. We can easily identify the lost jobs. However, it is tougher to quantify the jobs created by exports and the money consumers and businesses save from cheaper imports.

Combining Adam Smith (1723-1790) and David Ricardo (1772-1823), we can see why most economists support free trade. In a factory, Adam Smith says specialize through division of labor. When each worker has a specific task, output multiplies. Increasing output requires bigger markets in order to sell what has been produced.  As mass production enables us to move from local markets to regional specialization to free world trade, as David Ricardo explained, the world benefits. Here is a great econtalk podcast that connects Smith, Ricardo and trade.

In a 2006 survey, 87.5% of all PH.D members of the American Economic Association said yes to free trade by agreeing that “the U.S. should eliminate remaining tariffs and other barriers to trade.”

An Economic Question: Would you support free trade if, by subsidizing its exports, a country made it impossible for U.S. firms to compete? Explain.

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What if Mr. Jones, an assembly line worker, lost his job because of low cost imports? And, what if Mrs. Smith, a travel agent, also is unemployed but the reason is online firms like Expedia? 

Princeton economist Uwe Reinhardt asks us why Congress is likely to express more concern for Mr. Jones than Mrs. Smith. Instead, he suggests that whether the reason is global or domestic job disruption, perhaps all who gain should compensate those who have lost.

Dr. Reinhardt’s perspective takes us to the current debate in Congress and the size of our safety net. Should a yes vote for free trade agreements with Panama, South Korea, and Colombia include more assistance to people who, as a result, lose their jobs? The NY Times tells us that a group of Democrats say, “Yes” while a group of Republicans say, “No.”

The Economic Lesson

The 4 basic causes of unemployment are 1) structural (technological change), 2) cyclical (recession) 3) seasonal 4) frictional (everyday reasons like quitting and moving).

An Economic Question: If government provides a safety net of retraining and payments to the unemployed, what are the tradeoffs? ( Here and here, you can access facts about government aid to workers who lost jobs because of trade agreements.)

 

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KORUS has been in the news. The Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, negotiated in 2007 but not ratified by Congress, was in trouble. One reason was Ford.

With a 1% share of the South Korean car market, U.S. automakers want more. One of the bigger sellers of Ford vehicles in South Korea complained about import taxes that make his vehicles so much more expensive than Korean made cars. Ford also said that unfairly high South Korean emissions and safety standards on imports prevent them from competing.

I guess all of this reminds me of China and our chicken feet and Italy and Pecorino cheese. When we put a tariff on their tires, China retaliated against our chicken feet. When the EU unfairly treated our bananas, we taxed their cheese.

The significance? Free trade agreements increase U.S. exports. They stimulate our economic growth. Also, though, whether in South Korea or the U.S., they challenge specific domestic producers and can eliminate domestic jobs. Free trade is one of those issues that has been debated for centuries and will remain controversial.

The Economic Lesson

Combining Adam Smith and David Ricardo, we can see why most economists support free trade. In a factory, Adam Smith says specialize through division of labor. When each worker has a specific task, output multiplies. Increasing output requires bigger markets in order to sell what has been produced.  As mass production enables us to move from local markets to regional specialization to free world trade, as David Ricardo explained, the world benefits.

In a 2006 survey, 87.5% of all PH.D members of the American Economic Association said yes to free trade by agreeing that “the U.S. should eliminate remaining tariffs and other barriers to trade.”

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