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Tag Archives: GDP growth

Self-interest represents the seeds that blossom into economic growth.

Yesterday, the UN published a preview of its world economic outlook. While projections are always debatable, their graphs provide a snapshot of key economic issues.

GDP Outlook:

Slow GDP Growth for 2013

Oil Prices:

Less World Demand Might Depress Oil Price

Grain Prices:

 

World Grain Prices DipThese projections and comments from a Société Générale Report also are helpful. Most enlightening, perhaps, is the potential drag on the world economy from the euro zone.

Euro Zone Drag on World Economic Growth

Sources and Resources: Société Générale data is from Business Insider while the preview of the UN Report is here. For a summary, this NY Times article discusses its dismal outlook.

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Unless We Look More Closely at Women in the Global Labor Force, We See Only the Tip of the Iceberg.

Name a nation.

No matter which country you choose, you probably would see that women are underemployed. And still then, you would be looking only at the tip of the iceberg. Female labor force underutilization relates to a host of facts about a society that the consulting firm, Booz & Co. compiled in a recent report. Although I was not entirely convinced that all of their variables were quantifiable, I was quite comfortable with their basic premise. The world will be much better off when the one billion or so women that will enter the global economy during the next decade are appropriately empowered.

To assess female empowerment in 128 countries, Booz & Co. used input and output variables to create a Third Billion Index. Input scores involved components like female literacy, access to credit, laws about job opportunities; output numbers included male/female pay equity, the glass ceiling in business and in government, the types of jobs women occupy. Shown by their diagram below, based on the Index rank, Booz also grouped countries to display, for example, who was, “On the Path to Success,” or “At the Starting Gate.”

Crucially, the Booz report points out that the positive externalities of empowering women ripple far beyond the GDP. For example, women with income tend to invest more in their children. As a result, the impact on future generations is geometric.

Their conclusions? The top ranked countries are Australia, Norway, Sweden, Finland, New Zealand. The US is #30.

Sources and Resources: The Booz & Co. report, titled “Empowering the Third Billion: Women and the World of Work 2012,” is thought-provoking and, in some ways, surprising. I recommend that you take a look at it. For a much briefer summary, here is an Economist article and the source of my GDP graph below.

Empowering Women Adds to a Nation's GDP

Comparing How Countries Empower Women

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By Mira Korber, guest blogger.

As the Panama City skyline emerged from my misty Wednesday morning flight window, I must say the view was impressive. A snaking coast boasts skyscraper after skyscraper, each seeming to outdo the previous in height and marvels of modern engineering and architecture. With a 10.6% first quarter GDP growth, you feel a heating economy (and climate!) in Panama.

I, however, was not en-route to a zoody hotel in the ultra-urban section of the expanding city. I was on on my way to a monastery — where air conditioning and hot water were not part of the picture for music festival students like me. Amenities were scarce, weather in excess of 100 degrees, and humidity in the 90th percentile.

In contrast to the sleepy monastery, I felt Panama City radiating with economic activity. Dense population and feverish construction make short distances in Panama long car rides, and traffic congestion (“tranque”), a daily occurrence. Trundling through the neighborhood of Casco Viejo with instruments and musicians unceremoniously crashing around in an overstuffed bus, our driver navigated closed streets and constant construction; the entire historic district is under restoration to return cobblestone streets and stucco buildings to their full 16th/17th century Spanish architectural glory.

Ricardo Martinelli, president of Panama, has allocated those funds for rebuilding Casco Viejo and other massive construction projects, including a $1.25 billion metro construction project that keeps workers on the job 24/7.  $5.25 billion is on the books to add a third set of locks to the Panama Canal. At the moment, 35-40 ships make the passage daily, and freighters traveling both east and west share the same artery. In the 2014 centennial anniversary of the Panama Canal itself, a new set of locks will allow for traffic in both directions, bigger ships, and reuse of water.

For me, while Panama will always be about a fantastic musical experience, there was more. As I moved between unbearable heat in the monastery and then frigid air conditioning in our nearby practice room, as I observed the country’s eye-grabbing skyline and its bottomless poverty, I thought about its contrasts.

If I return for more music, I hope to see that Panama’s economic development will have as good a “conductor” as we did.

For reports of Panama’s accelerating GDP, look here and here. Festival de Alfredo Saint-Malo, in which I participated.

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Hearing that U.S. real GDP growth for the first quarter was 3.2%, I wondered how well we were doing.

We can look at past recessions to assess 3.2%. Looking back to the early 1980s, some economists say they were hoping for better. Like a “V”, when a recession is pretty steep, usually, so too is the recovery. For 2nd quarter 1983, after the 1980 and 1982 “double dip”, we jumped to 9.7% real GDP growth. By contrast 2010 projections are for 3.1%.

We can also look at other countries. According to a recent IMF report, compared to developing nations and the emerging economies, our 3.1% projected recovery is “tepid”. China’s projected growth rate for 2010 is 10%; India’s is 8.8%; Brazil’s is 5.5%. However, when we look at the EU, we are doing okay. Their projected real growth rate is 1.0%.

Finally, we can consider unemployment rates. Projections for 2010 are: U.S.: 9.4%; Germany: 8.6%; Greece: 12%; Spain: 19.4%; Japan: 5.1%.

The Economic Life

GDP is a measure of the money value of new goods and services produced in a country during one year. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed in a labor force divided by the size of the entire labor force.

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