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Tag Archives: gold medals

Olympic Medal...olympics_000019262071XSmall

Sometimes it is tough to decide who really is #1.

Ask me who won the Olympics and I, as a former history teacher, might say the Mongol Empire.

If you were to outline the Mongol Empire (1280AD) on a map, 15 contemporary countries would be totally or partially included. Ranging from China to Tajikstan and including the Russian Federation and South Korea, those 15 nations won 285 medals.

The top 6 on my medals list would be:

EMPIRE  MEDAL COUNT
Mongol (1280)  285
British (1910)  181
Eurozone (2012)  178
Roman (100)  175
Napoleonic (1810)  165
Russia (1950)  164

From: pingflux.

Other yardsticks for naming Olympic winners?

Most people say that the US was first with the most medals (104) or because it got more gold (46) than anyone else. Then though, using the gold as our yardstick, for the 2008 Olympics, China, with 51 would have been named #1. Another possibility is to divide a nation’s GDP or its population by its medal count. Among the top winners, for GDP Russia is on top because it “spent” the least while Great Britain wins for the lowest number of people per medal

COUNTRY MILLIONS OF PEOPLE PER MEDAL      $ BILLIONS OF GDP PER MEDAL
GREAT BRITAIN    0.97     $35
RUSSIA    1.68     $29
GERMANY    1.85     $71
US    3.02     $147
CHINA   15.44     $131

From: WSJ.com

All of this took me to a New Yorker article from Malcolm Gladwell on ranking. Focusing primarily on the U.S. News & World Report’s annual “Best Colleges,” he suggests that seemingly clear criteria for determining the “best” are tough to quantify and may not even be valid. when you look closely at them

For me, Gladwell’s conclusions apply also to the economy. Looking at income inequality among nations, happiness among US states, the top money managers on Wall Street or countless other topics, you will discover that the criteria for ranking them deserves a closer look.

Econlife looked more closely at ranking questions here. Also, a thanks to the WSJ Numbers Guy for the ideas and much of the data in this post and you might enjoy reading more about the historic empires that would have won the 20102 London Olympics.

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Olympic Medal...olympics_000019262071XSmall

If you want to predict Olympic medal winners, you might look at economic data.

A report on the Olympics from Goldman Sachs suggests that nations with a superior economic growth environment will increase their share of Olympic gold medals in London. Quantifying political, macroeconomic and microeconomic conditions, macroeconomic stability, human capital and technology, Goldman compared economics and medals for multiple years.

Their results?

Predictably, developed nations win more. But also, for less developed nations, increasing per capita income means more medals as does being a host nation. Below you can see the boost predicted for the UK.

In addition, some sports correlate more closely to the economic variables than others. The Goldman researchers concluded that “canoeing, diving, fencing, swimming, table tennis,” equestrianism, gymnastics and wresting have an economic connection. By contrast, football, softball and triathlon have not.

Olympics Medal Statistics and Predictions from the Goldman Olympics Report

Country

GDP Size

By Rank

2011

Olympic

Medals

By Rank

Beijing

2008

Number of

Olympic

Gold Medals

Beijing

2008

Number of

Olympic

Gold Medals

Predictions

2012

USA

1

1

36

37

China

2

2

51

33

Japan

3

9

9

8

Germany

4

6

16

14

France

5

6

7

14

Brazil

6

13

3

6

UK

7

4

19

30

Italy

8

8

8

10

Russia

9

3

23

25

Canada

10

12

3

6

*Australia had 15 gold medals in 2008; 14 is the Goldman prediction for this year.

Fun to contemplate, the predictions vary. You might enjoy looking at the Goldman report, these WSJ predictions and this comparison of several. For another economic analysis of Olympic medal winners from a Colorado College professor, I suggest looking at Dan Johnson’s predictions.  And for per capita income data, this World Bank site is ideal. Finally, I wonder how much the euro zone fiscal turmoil has affected Olympic budgets. I have read that Greece’s Olympic spending has plummeted.

 

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