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Tag Archives: Hubbert’s Peak

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1. Asked to list the world’s biggest oil consumers, most of us would be correct if we started with the US and China. With the US at 20.5% and China, 11.4% for 2011, we are almost at one-third of world consumption.

2. But then, it gets a bit tricky. Ranking the other big oil users, in which order would you place Brazil, Canada, Germany, Japan, India, the Russian Federation,  Saudi Arabia?

The answers:

  • Japan: 5%
  • India: 4%
  • Russian Federation: 3.4%
  • Saudi Arabia: 3.1%
  • Brazil: 3.0%
  • Germany: 2.6%
  • South Korea: 2.6%
  • Canada: 2.5%

Isn’t it surprising that Saudi Arabia ranks so high? And yet the reasons make sense. Because of subsidies, gas and electricity are very cheap, oil production uses a lot of energy and air conditioning. Yes, with a rapidly growing population, the demand for air conditioning is massive.

3. Finally, on a per capita basis, for 2010, who consumed the most oil: the US, China, Canada, Greece?

Answers: Canada is first and the US second. China was #9 and amazingly, Greece was #7 in the world (!!).

The trickiest question of all: Economists are still debating whether we have climbed Hubbert’s Peak–the point at which oil production is the highest it will ever go. Here, economist James Hamilton discusses the issue and here, econlife looks at it.

To read more about world oil consumption, this BP report has the most up-to-date information I could find while these Economist articles here and here also provide some insight.

 


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Have you ever heard of Hubbert’s Peak?  No, it is not a mountain. Hubbert’s Peak refers to our oil supply. In 1956, Marion King Hubbert warned us that U.S. oil production would peak within 15 years. And, the only direction after the peak is straight down.

In a WSJ article, oil analyst and historian Daniel Yergin explains why he believes Hubbert and his contemporary followers have been wrong. As far back as the 1880s, when the experts said Pennsylvania would soon run out, the end seemed imminent. During both World Wars and the 1970s, again, oil worries resurfaced. Repeatedly though, new reserves and new technology have nudged the “peak” further into the future.

In this 2009 NY Times article, you can read more about both sides of the debate. You also might look at this “Remember the Pistachios” blog post.

The Economic Lesson

Marion Hubbert’s problem was ignoring the role of price. Every time price increased, the incentive to find new reserves and develop new technology soared. The result? More oil and price again declined.

Correspondingly, when the price of oil increases, the incentive to use alternative energy sources also rises. The result? More wind turbines, natural gas and other energy providers.

So, whereas Hubbard envisioned catastrophe, economists saw the market saving the world.

An Economic Question: How might you use opportunity cost to explain why the price of oil moves up and down?

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