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Tag Archives: IMF

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Will international creditors say yes again to Greece after today’s meeting in Brussels?

Part of the deal involves selling or leasing whatever the Greek government owns. The proceeds reduce the debt and meanwhile, by building roads and business parks, resuscitating ports and recapitalizing banks, foreign investors pour money into the country.

It has not been quite that easy, though.

A closer look at government-owned beaches that were for sale revealed squatter communities composed of thousands of undocumented houses. In addition, because Greek property registries are woefully inaccurate, land transfers everywhere have been problematic. (If you can’t prove you own the land, then no one will buy it from you.)

The ports? Greek citizens are worried about prime assets being transferred to foreign ownership or worse, to Greek oligarches awaiting a fire sale. In addition, no one appears to be quite sure how much ownership the government should retain. And even if the Greek parliament settles all of that, foreign banks hestitate to finance Greek deals and the Greek banks need recapitalization.

All of these privatization complications made me wonder how many deals could be involved so I went through a month of articles at eKathimerini.com and came up with this random list of government-owned properties that could be partially or entirely sold or leased. They represent only a small proportion of the hundred of deals that might transpire but do provide a picture of the massive task facing the Greek government.

  • Public Power Corporation
  • Gaming company, OPAP
  • State lottery licenses
  • Public Gas Corporation
  • Gas transmission operators
  • Hellenic Postbank
  • Elliniko International Airport
  • Athens Water Company
  • Hellenic Petroleum
  • Hellenic Vehicles
  • Assorted Port Authorities
  • Buildings that house state agencies
  • Thessaloniki Water Company
  • Larco, Europe’s largest ferronickel producer
  • Egnatia motorway

Finally, where will the money go? Satisfying the bailout “troika,” the IMF, the European Central bank, and the European Commission, the Greek Parliament has issued “decrees” that direct the money to an escrow fund dedicated to paying the Greek debt.

Sources and Resources: I recommend these NY Times articles, here and here, for interesting stories while a Greek perspective is at eKathimerini.

Finally, the following Merle Hazard “Greek Debt Song” is always fun to watch.

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euro zone map

The Greek government needs its newest bailout infusion. But in return, austerity would include (among many other requirements) cutting certain civil servants’ salaries by as much as 35%, raising the retirement age again but this time to 67, and plunging the number of associate professors at public universities from 15,226 to 2,000. The Greek Parliament has to decide before November 12.

This takes us to olive oil.

In a March 2012 report, the consulting firm McKinsey & Company proposed a development plan for Greece that would be spearheaded by an Economic Development and Reform Unit. Industry by industry, specific changes were proposed. Looking at what McKinsey suggests for olive oil as a prototype example, do you think the Greeks can leap from their current crisis to economic growth during the next decade?

Here are the broad goals and then the olive oil plan:

Broad Goals:

  • Focus on tradable sectors
  • Attract foreign and domestic investment
  • Generate more productivity
  • Ensure tax compliance
  • Create employment opportunities
  • Simplify bureaucracy
  • Expand the court system

 

Olive Oil:

Although Greece is the world’s third largest olive oil producer, Italy is the main beneficiary. Because Greece sends its olive oil in bulk to Italy where it is packaged and marketed, Italy enjoys a 50% premium from the price of the retail product. McKinsey suggests that instead, Greece has to add to its factory capacity at home, develop a “cachet” for the “Made in Greece” label, and sell directly to targeted markets abroad. North America, the UK, Germany & Austria, and the Balkans would be top priority markets. (The McKinsey chart below is interesting.)

Reading the report, you start to realize that while Greece has immense economic potential, the chasm between their current plight and jumpstarting economic development is massive. In addition, since the report was issued, Fage moved its headquarters to Luxembourg and Coca-Cola switched its main stock market listing to London.

Can olive oil and tourism, feta and yogurt help to fuel the Greek economy?

Sources and Resources: My current facts about Greece receiving its newest tranche are from this NY Times article. Thinking of the future, the McKinsey report resounds until, I suspect, it connects to Greece’s political and economic problems. As a counterpoint, you might want to look at this Business Insider slide show detailing the impact of a “Grexit” and this econlife post about Greece.

From McKinsey, “Greece 10 Years Ahead,” p. 49:

Greek Economic Development and Olive Oil

 

 

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Yesterday, in a 94-0 vote, the U.S. Senate said it had bailout fatigue. No, they were not referring to Fannie Mae or General Motors. They meant Greece.

This is the connection:

By selling government securities, Greece had borrowed money to fund massive spending. When it appeared that Greece might not pay back the money they borrowed, they received bailout money.

Here the U.S. enters the picture. Approximately 2/3 of the Greek bailout money came from the European Union and 1/3 from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). As a leading member of the IMF, U.S. money is a part of the $40 billion that so far has been allocated to the Greek bailout

This takes me to 2 questions:

1. How much money is involved? This 2009 congressional research document indicates the outlay is very small although a larger loan guarantee to the IMF could be involved.

2. If one purpose of the IMF is to preserve financial stability, wouldn’t nations with troubled finances most need their help? 

The Economic Lesson

At the Bretton Woods (New Hampshire) Conference, in 1944, as World War II was ending, the IMF was proposed. The next year, it was established. With 29 original members, the IMF’s basic goal was worldwide financial stability and cooperation. During 1947, France was the first country to borrow from the IMF. (John Maynard Keynes attended the Bretton Woods Conference.)

An Economic Question: Explain why you support or oppose the Senate vote.

 

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Hearing that U.S. real GDP growth for the first quarter was 3.2%, I wondered how well we were doing.

We can look at past recessions to assess 3.2%. Looking back to the early 1980s, some economists say they were hoping for better. Like a “V”, when a recession is pretty steep, usually, so too is the recovery. For 2nd quarter 1983, after the 1980 and 1982 “double dip”, we jumped to 9.7% real GDP growth. By contrast 2010 projections are for 3.1%.

We can also look at other countries. According to a recent IMF report, compared to developing nations and the emerging economies, our 3.1% projected recovery is “tepid”. China’s projected growth rate for 2010 is 10%; India’s is 8.8%; Brazil’s is 5.5%. However, when we look at the EU, we are doing okay. Their projected real growth rate is 1.0%.

Finally, we can consider unemployment rates. Projections for 2010 are: U.S.: 9.4%; Germany: 8.6%; Greece: 12%; Spain: 19.4%; Japan: 5.1%.

The Economic Life

GDP is a measure of the money value of new goods and services produced in a country during one year. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed in a labor force divided by the size of the entire labor force.

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