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Tag Archives: investing

The Surprising Glass Ceiling in Sweden and France

Perhaps we should remember Hetty Green when trying to erase the gender pay gap.

Hetty Green, who died at age 82 in 1916, was a multimillionaire who owned Dewey, a terrier that bit people. Asked why she kept him, she repled, “He loves me and he doesn’t know how rich I am.”

Totaling at least $100 million, more than $2 billion today, her fortune was Wall Street money that she amassed through her own investing savvy. Born Hetty Robinson into a wealthy New England family, she was sent to New York by her dad with $1200 to buy clothes and find a husband. Instead, she saved most of the money and married years later when she was 31. When her father died in 1865, she inherited $1 million and a $5 million trust. But that was just the beginning.

Hetty Robinson Green was a a patient investor and a tough negotiator. After the Civil War, she bought undervalued government bonds and then railroad securities. When banks needed money, buying some of their loans, she began to amass a real estate portfolio that grew to hundreds of properties. As with the Georgia Central Railroad, when one faction offered to buy her securities, she understood timing and intimidation. Knowing the Georgia Central investors needed her, she held out until the shares that she purchased at $70 apiece climbed to $127.50 and earned her a $385,000 profit.

Yes, some called her the Witch of Wall Street because she wore a dowdy black dress (see picture below) and lived modestly in Brooklyn and then Hoboken. Not a spender, whether buying bread, visiting a doctor or purchasing stock, she negotiated. But when NYC faced a financial crisis during the Panic of 1907, it was Green who made the $1.1 million bond purchase that provided emergency funding. And when churches needed to borrow, her interest rate was low.

As an investor, she knew her goals, adhered to her principles and permitted no one to pay her unfairly. A model for aggressive negotiating, Hetty Green is a perfect example of a woman who would not accept the gender pay gap of 23 cents for white women and 31 cents for black women on each dollar earned described in yesterday’s NY Times article, “How To Attack the Pay Gap? Speak up.” Indeed, she could have taught all of us how to “Speak up.”

A Final Fact: Green summed up wise investing when she said, ”I buy when things are low and no one wants them. I keep them…until they go up and people are anxious to buy…I never speculate. Such stocks as belong to me were purchased simply as an investment, never on margin.”

The next 3 Monday posts will focus on gender issues.

Sources and Resources: The 2004 book, Hetty: The Genius and Madness of America’s First Female Tycoon was a fast and interesting read, the source of my quote on her investing philosophy (pp. 166-167). The book reminds us that, like Rockefeller, Carnegie, Morgan, Gould, and Armour, she too was born during the 1830s and built a massive fortune. Her Dewey quote was from a Barron’s column by John Steele Gordon.

Hetty Green With Dewey

Hetty Green Was A Successful 19th Century Investor Who Amassed A Fortune

This entry was edited with the addition of the pay gap.

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The Congress and the Deficit

Reading about John Maynard Keynes’s investing acumen in last Saturday’s Wall Street Journal, I wondered whether being a Keynesian could involve more than your attitude about the role of government.

So, as a teacher, I created this “Am I a Keynesian?” quiz:

  1. When you get your lowest mark in economics on a standardized test, do you blame the test writers? On the British civil service examination that got him a job in the India Office in 1907, Maynard Keynes received the second best grade. Hearing that he had fared worst on the economics section of the exam, he said, “I evidently knew more about the Economy than my examiners.” And, he was right.
  2. Do you own an auspicious art collection? Using profits from currency speculation in 1919 and 1920, Keynes purchased paintings by Seurat, Picasso, Matisse, Renoir and Cezanne.
  3. Are you a good investor? Keynes was an extraordinary investor. Reacting to his mediocre record during the 1920s, he switched his investing style from a macro approach to a long term bottom-up stock picking perspective and his returns soared. The results have been cited as better than Peter Lynch, Warren Buffett and John Templeton.
  4. During the morning, do you remain in bed to sip your tea, read reports, and call stockbrokers? Every day, for a half hour after awakening, Keynes started working in bed.
  5. Would you like to marry a Russian ballet dancer? Described by Sylvia Nasar as, “a Russian ballerina with a voluptuous body and a droll sense of humor but no obvious intellectual interests,” Lydia Lopokova married Keynes in 1925. (The Keyneses honeymooned at her parents’ home in St. Petersburg. He had a lot to say about the Russian economy.)
  6. Do you sound like a mathematician? Having met with Keynes during the early evening on May 28, 1934, FDR said, “he had ‘a grand talk with Keynes and liked him immensely’ but complained that he talked like a ‘mathematician.’”

During his talk with FDR and in a subsequent NY Times letter to President Roosevelt, Keynes recommended deficit spending to jumpstart the economy.  And that is why, today, those of us who supported the $800 billion, 2009 stimulus spending are Keynesians.

My sources: The Worldly Philosophers by Robert Heilbroner, Grand Pursuit by Sylvia Nasar, John Maynard Keynes by Robert Skidelsky, Keynes and Hayek: The Clash That Defined Modern Economics by Nicholas Wapshott. And, this WSJ article.

 

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Good investing takes us to our emotions. But not quite how you might expect.

Our brains don’t like random events. Instead, we prefer patterns, especially pleasing patterns. For basketball, that means streaks. According to one statistical study of the 76ers and the Boston Celtics, players do not really have “hot hands.” But our brains experience more pleasure when we attribute a streak to a player.

Similarly, for investing, because we perceive rising stock prices as a pattern, we feel pleasure. Then, for tech stocks, or gold, or houses, the higher the market goes, the more satisfaction participants get from being a part of its ascent. In fact, many of us get so much delight from our “dopamine rich” brain centers that we forget we could be in a bubble.

Consequently, as science writer Jonah Lehrer tells us in a Wired column, and in How We Decide, the quest for “lucrative patterns” when events are actually random can lead us astray. Maybe that is why “the best shooters always think they’re cold” and the best investors question a skyrocketing market.

The Economic Lesson

For his behavioral research, psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 2002. Demonstrating that our decisions are more irrational than traditional economists tend to believe, Dr. Kahneman described the “systemic patterns” that we create when we respond illogically.

For example, his work displayed that we care more about losses than gains and the “frame” for a question shapes its answer. As a result, told that an investment of $1,000 could lose 50% people typically reject the idea. On the other hand, we tend to say, “Yes,” when told an investment could gain 50%.  Here, the NY Times ideally describes his work.

An Economic Question: Similar to basketball shooting streaks, where else have you seen people try to create patterns where none exist?

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If you had purchased Berkshire Hathaway stock on December 6, 1976, you paid approximately $77. At yesterday’s closing price, one share of the same firm (BRK/A) was $127,550. (Looking at the BLS CPI inflation calculator, $77 in 1976 is equal to the buying power of $298.02 today.)

Annually, Warren Buffett, the person responsible for the astronomical increase in Berkshire Hathaway’s share price, sends his letter to shareholders. 26 pages long, it is statistical, it is folksy, it expresses general investing acumen, specific performance information, and even a letter to his uncle from his grandfather about always having a financial reserve. I recommend reading it all. For now, though, I wanted to share one story from the letter. It reveals the secret to success.

The story involves Mr. Buffett’s first contact with GEICO, a firm that Berkshire Hathaway owns. As a business student at Columbia, 60 years ago, Mr. Buffett’s idol was Ben Graham, the co-author of a classic investing “primer.” When Buffett discovered that Graham was the chairman of the Government Employees Insurance Co (now GEICO), he decided, one Saturday, to visit the company’s headquarters in Washington, D.C. When he arrived, the door was locked because the offices were closed on Saturday. Buffett’s response? To knock and shout until a janitor appeared. Asked if anyone was there, the janitor took him to the office of Lorimer Davidson, an executive who later became GEICO’s CEO. Davidson spoke with his young visitor for 4 hours.

Fast forward to 1996 when Mr. Davidson made a video expressing his pleasure that his firm, GEICO, would “permanently reside” with Berkshire Hathaway. He also “playfully concluded” by saying, “Next time, Warren, please make an appointment.”

The Economic Lesson

Both Adam Smith and John Maynard Keynes wrote about the spirit exhibited by Warren Buffet as a student. Smith might have referred simply to the business activity generated by self-interest while Keynes could have taken us to the motivational role of “animal spirits.”

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