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Tag Archives: investment

PNC Wealth Management Measures Inflation With Its Christmas Price Index

November 11 was Singles Day in China. Started by a group of college students during the 1990s, Singles Day is when unmarrieds shower each other with gifts. I have read that 11/11 represents 4 bare sticks which sound like the Chinese word for bachelor or perhaps the date was chosen just because it is 4 ones. With 2 more ones, 11/11/11 was called the Singles Day of the Century. (It was also National Corduroy Day.)

Beyond a day to recognize singles, 11/11 has become associated with e-commerce. China’s online behemoth, Alibaba, reported $1.6 billion in revenue during the first 13 hours of 11/11–more than last year’s US Cyber Monday. Singles bought discounted clothing and furniture, special travel and restaurant deals, and one dealership even offered 23% off BMW 3 series cars. The Economist said that, “Couriers were buried in parcels.”

Our bottom line? Analyses of the Chinese economy point to excessive household saving, inadequate consumer spending and too much dependence on exports and investment. With rebalancing a goal, any consumer spending binge is good news. In China’s newest 5-year plan (2011-2014), China, hopes to see online spending quadruple.

Sources and Resources: The most interesting articles on Singles Day were from Business Insider, USA Today, and The Economist (and the source of the above courier quote). A good, brief discussion of China’s economic challenges, this FT article also clearly conveys their progress. Finally, in this econlife post, we looked more closely at the Chinese consumer and shared the table that follows from McKinsey.

Chinese Urban Households: Disposable Income/Proportion of Urban Population

Household Type:Annual disposable income 2010(total of 226 million households) 2020*(total of 328 million households)
Affluent(More than $34,000) 2% 6%
Mainstream($16,000 to $34,000) 6% 51%
Value($6,000 to $16,000) 82% 36%
Poor(Less than $6000) 10% 7%

*estimated

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Obama/Biden and Romney/Ryan Issues

Comparing Obama/Biden and Romney/Ryan economics, people name John Maynard Keynes and Friedrich von Hayek. Having looked at Hayek several weeks ago, let’s turn to Keynes now.

During 1934, with unemployment high and production low, British economist John Maynard Keynes was reported to have crumpled up a pile of towels rather than just one after washing his hands in a U.S. restaurant. His goal he said (if this really happened and no one is sure) was to create more jobs.

More than businesses though, Keynes (1883-1946) believed that a contracting economy needed the job creation that government could provide through deficit financing. Government spending would then multiply as it passed from hand to hand. Just pay a worker, he spends his income, the recipient then spends it, businesses have to expand and an inflated total of spending enters the GDP.

Like the New Deal, it was okay to have people plant pine trees and build airports. It was ideal to establish a social security program that provided incomes people would spend. The Keynesians believe that when government diminishes unemployment, consumers spend more and businesses, feeling some optimism, expand. Then tax revenue increases, government repays the money it borrowed and the deficit shrinks.

By contrast, Friedrich von Hayek said prices are the key. During his 1920s/30s dialogue with John Maynard Keynes at the London School of Economics, Hayek reminded us that during a recession the price of labor falls, the price of capital declines, interest rates sink. Lower prices ultimately transform the price incentives that generated the recession. They become enticing messages that say, “Hire, Expand, Borrow.” According to Hayek, rather than government and politicians, only the individual business people that hear that message know the appropriate answers. (Please see EconLife entry on Paul Ryan’s economic muse.)

Supporting a Keynesian approach, President Obama proposed the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the $787 billion bailout program that ballooned to $840 billion in 2011. As a Congressman from Wisconsin, VP candidate Paul Ryan voted no. Currently, the Romney/Ryan team says it is time to inspire the private sector with less government.

Sources and Resources: There are lots of excellent articles on John Maynard Keynes. For a readable summary, this John Cassidy New Yorker article is very good, I got my “towel story” here from WSJ.com, and econtalk has a good discussion of the Wapshott book on Keynes and Hayek. For the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009,  the NY Times has the spending details, this government site gives an overview, and EconLife has some analysis.

Election Economics Topics:

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University of Chicago professor Luigi Zingales tells the story of being asked to tape his windows during a tornado watch in Boston. A similar mandate in Italy, he said, would mean that the brother of the mayor was in the tape business. Furthermore, when instructed to stay inside, he recalled the Italian attitude toward government meant you would fare well if you did the opposite.

Dr. Zingale alluded to his experience in Boston when discussing the appropriate economic role for government. At its core, government needs to be trusted. One source of trust is simplicity and transparency.

For a prototype, he suggested we look at the 37 pages of the 1933 landmark banking law, Glass-Steagall. To eliminate banking abuses, Glass-Steagall simply said investment banks and commercial banks had to be separate businesses. Banking monoliths like J.P. Morgan & Co. had to divide themselves into institutions that provided traditional banking services and those that focused on securities work for businesses.

By contrast, covering everything from derivatives to systemic risk to consumer protection, the scope of Dodd-Frank is broad. As a result, to implement its 848 pages, specific rules have to be written. Currently 30% complete, 8843 pages of rules have been articulated.

The 11 pages, for example, that focus on the Volcker Rule are about diminishing banks’ risky behavior. Implementing those 11 pages, 4 regulatory agencies wrote a 298 page proposal with 383 questions and 1420 “subquestions.” Called an interactive Volcker rule map, it has 355 steps.

One agency that the law created has begun to function. In the news recently, the Consumer Finance Protection Bureau initiated a suit against Capital One Financial. For deceptive marketing of consumer credit cards, Capital One has been fined $210 million.

How to assess Dodd Frank?

Supported by President Obama and opposed by Mitt Romney, Dodd-Frank had its second birthday on July 21. There is a definitive Democratic/Republican divide on the Act. While most of us agree that many financial institutions engaged in wrongdoing, we disagree about how to constrain them in the future.

And that returns us to Dr. Zingales. For you, does Dodd-Frank evoke more or less trust in our financial system? Your answer should help you select your candidate.

Here is the complete transcript and link to the podcast of Dr. Zingales’s excellent econtalk interview while this Davis-Polk interactive displays the current status of Dodd-Frank’s implementation. For more on the law itself, here is its text and here is an econlife post on it.

Election Economics Topics:

 

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Human capital helps GDP Grow

It is all about GDP.  In this article, the WSJ does a good job of explaining how each GDP component might solve our problems…or make them worse.

  • Consumer Spending: The largest part of GDP, consumer spending has propelled recovery in the past. With oil prices declining and the Japanese supply chain no longer depleting auto inventories, spending could rise. On the other hand, you know unemployment, the debt crisis, and consumer confidence are eroding any tendency to spend.
  • Investment: Business equipment purchases and profits have been robust. Looking ahead, though, housing remains weak and uncertainty seems to be building. As Keynes might have said, the requisite “animal spirits” might be diminishing.
  • Government: Compared to the spike from stimulus dollars, state, federal and local government spending are going down.
  • Trade: Yes, the weaker dollar should help exports. The question, though, is which healthy foreign economies will purchase our goods and services. We know the problems that the weaker euro zone nations and Japan have been experiencing.

The Economic Lesson

Where does this leave us? If you believe in Keynesian support for a troubled economy, you might suggest another stimulus that will sufficiently “prime the pump.” If your tendency is toward Adam Smith, then your policy is less government intervention because a steep trough in economic activity will ultimately lead to a healthy recovery.

An Economic Question: Based on whether you are a more government or less government person, express your policy suggestions for high unemployment (9.2%) and sluggish GDP growth (1.3%).

 

 

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Too much regulation? Senator Mark Warner’s proposed legislation is an interesting approach.

Concerned that regulation is “stifling fresh investment and discouraging innovation,” Senator Mark Warner says the incentives have to change. Currently, when federal agencies create new rules, their power expands, their budget grows, and their work force balloons. Burgeoning regulation, he says, pushed us down from #4 to #5 on the World Bank’s “Ease of Doing Business” rankings.

Instead, Warner suggests that agencies create “a credible, quantifiable estimate of the economic impact” for every regulation. Calling it “regulatory pay-go,” his proposed legislation would require eliminating old rules when new ones are added. The net result? The regulatory impact remains constant.

It sounds good to me. Your opinion?

The Economic Lesson

Pay-go refers to pay-as-you-go, a legislative approach that involves budgetary neutrality. New legislation is characterized as pay-as-you-go when it replaces existing spending instead of adding to the federal budget. Social Security is called a pay-as-you-go program because the money collected from current workers is paid to current Social Security recipients.

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