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Tag Archives: job creation

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By Amy Tourgee, guest blogger, Kent Place School alumna and Environmental Studies undergraduate at Princeton University

Every December, the holiday season is sure to bring us a lot of things: traveling to see family and friends, fighting the traffic and crowds at the mall, mailboxes stuffed with holiday cards and, of course, a deluge of movie releases. This year was no exception cinema-wise, and the end of the 2012 year was certainly filled with star-studded movies, but one movie in particular, Promised Land, caught my eye. You may not have been able to tell by the commercial – or you may have been distracted by the stars John Krasinski and Matt Damon – but the movie centers around the debate of hydraulic fracturing, not exactly a typical holiday topic.

Nonetheless, the topic of fracturing (or “fracking”) is a huge issue, one of much importance and controversy. The rise of hydraulic fracturing in recent years promises enormous economic benefits as well as equally enormous environmental drawbacks.

Here’s a short review of the cost benefit analysis of hydraulic fracturing:
Benefits: source of energy, energy independence for the U.S., low natural gas prices, job creation
Costs: air and water pollution, human health hazards, huge water consumption, earthquakes

Even to me, an environmental scientist, the benefits are very appealing despite the environmental issues. It seems to me that the costs and benefits are equally matched – and I just wonder, how you can truly evaluate them?

The Economic Lesson
To some degree, you can reconcile them! The risks of hydraulic fracturing are externalities – while they do not affect the producer of the good monetarily, they do influence the standard of living in society. If externalities were taken into consideration, they would shift the curves on the supply-and-demand graph, setting a new equilibrium. For example, the inclusion of fracturing’s negative externalities would show us that natural gas is being overproduced for the price being paid for it.

There are many obstacles that economists and scientists face in order to accomplish an economic analysis like this, such as putting a monetary value on environmental and health conditions. Hopefully, however, economists and scientists can work together to truly maximize the benefits and minimize the costs of hydraulic fracturing.

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In China, a Big Mac costs close to the equivalent of $2.44. That same burger in the US is $4.20. The basic idea is PPP, purchasing power parity. The dollar can buy more when the yuan is undervalued. And President Obama and Governor Romney have both indicated that an undervalued yuan displeases them.

Actually, they probably would not mind if price fluctuated naturally in foreign currency markets. Instead though, they say currency manipulation might be occurring because a government is intentionally, over a long time period, affecting the demand for and/or supply of its money. And by impacting demand and/or supply, they are shaping its price.

China, though, is not the only one. We could add to the list, Denmark, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Switzerland, Argentina, Bolivia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Angola, Algeria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Russia. Some overvalue and others undervalue. But all, according to the Peterson Institute, are engaging in “currency manipulation.”

Finally though, I wonder whether currency “manipulation” is necessarily bad. One position says, “Yes.” An undervalued foreign currency lowers US demand for US made goods and destroys US jobs. The other side says that consumers and businesses that purchase Chinese goods benefit from their artificially low prices. Because consumers have extra money to spend elsewhere, jobs are created. In addition, businesses that buy Chinese metals and motors, for example, have lower costs.

Sources and Resources: To check out the PPP of other currencies, you might enjoy the Big Mac Index and also an econlife PPP explanation. For all the detail you could ever want about currency manipulation from many viewpoints, this Peterson Institute paper, this Treasury Department report and this Mark Perry blog are ideal complements.

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Steve Jobs had been pruning Gravenstein apple trees at the All One Farm and was on one of his “fruitarian diets” when he and Steve Wozniak tried to figure out a name for their new firm. Rejecting Matrix, Executek and Personal Computers Inc., Jobs explained to Walter Isaacson that Apple, “…sounded fun…” and “would get us ahead of Atari in the phone book.”

In 1976, their first computer, the Apple I, was sold for $666.66 and cost them approximately $220 to make in the Jobs’s garage.

Retailing for $629 (16GB), the new iPad 4G’s components cost $309.

According to the BLS Inflation Calculator, $666.66 in 1976 has the same buying power as $2667.38 today.

The Economic Lesson

It is tough to quantify job creation in the U.S. but Apple recently tried.  With 47,000 employees, Apple says it has “created or supported” a total of 514,000 jobs (components makers, UPS drivers, apps developers, glass and plane makers…you see). One Harvard professor summarized the debate surrounding the specific numbers by saying, “Apple has a big effect and big is about as precise as I can make it.”

Similarly, economists continue to debate the jobs impact of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act.

An Economic Question: Why might it be difficult to figure out how many new jobs a firm or a government program has created?

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Hearing that the U.S. economy gained 243,000 jobs last month, wouldn’t you think that there were 243,000 more jobs?

NY Times financial journalist Floyd Norris explains that actually, the economy LOST 2,689,000 jobs. But, it would be misleading for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) news release to report the real number because of seasonal fluctuations in the jobs market. Holiday hiring during every December inflates the numbers and then they quickly deflate during January. To compensate for data that would have obscured our true economic trajectory, the numbers were seasonally adjusted…from -2,689,000 to +243,000.

However, not everyone agrees on the appropriate approach to seasonal adjustment. And that returns us to the problem with statistics. Seemingly objective, a close look (as with college ranking) reveals much more.

The Economic Lesson

If you saw more job creation during December 2008, you could have concluded that the economy had entered the road to recovery. However, knowing the holidays were the reason, and that it happened every December, you might have changed your mind. Called seasonal variation, adjusting monthly data to let us see where the economy is going is perfectly explained by the Dallas Fed here. The graph that they include with a seasonally adjusted and a seasonally unadjusted line ideally displays the difference between the two.

An Economic Question: Before looking at the Dallas Fed’s graph, draw an unemployment graph with unadjusted data for an economy experiencing a worsening recession during one year. Then, eliminating the temporary economic impact of summers and holidays, draw a second unemployment graph for the same year.

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Friday’s employment report had good news and bad news. There was considerably less unemployment and considerably less job creation. Moving from 9.4% to 9%, the unemployment rate decreased more than most people expected. However, the job creation number, 36,000, was a disappointment.

Do we have a contradiction? We just do not know. The fuzziness has many reasons. Here are a few:

1) The unemployment rate is based on the Household Survey, a canvas of 60,000 households. The job creation numbers come from the Payroll Survey, collected from approximately 440,000 business and government establishments. You can look here to see how the 2 surveys differ.

2) Furthermore, the Household Survey data might have been skewed because it is collected during one week. What if that week was snowy? What if no one was home?

3) Previous job creation numbers from the Payroll Survey are revised each month as more data is collected. As a result, the Payroll Survey data becomes more accurate over time.

4) However, the unemployment rate is never revised.

Where are we? At the NY Times, Floyd Norris and David Leonhardt tried to work their way through the confusion. Their conclusions? The job market is definitely better than it was during October 2009 and the happier news comes from the Household Survey. 

The Economic Lesson

To complicate matters further, the unemployment rate looks only at those who are in the labor force (16 or older, have a job, looking for a job). For that reason, some suggest considering the U-6 rate, which includes the traditional numbers plus “marginally attached” workers and those who are not in the labor force. These workers have either stopped looking for a job or cannot find full time employment. The U-6 rate is a whopping 17.3%.

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