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Tag Archives: John Taylor

The Congress and the Fiscal Cliff

Maybe everyone got something from President Obama’s jobs plan. According to the Washington Post’s Ezra Klein, the “right” got tax cuts, the “left” got help for the unemployed and infrastructure spending, and everyone will get deficit reduction. For a quick summary, this graphic is ideal.

On the other hand, each side might believe it did not get enough.

Representing a left of center view, here is what Paul Krugman has been saying:

  • With residential construction plunging and consumer saving soaring, there has been a massive decline in spending. So far, the amount spent by the federal government has insufficiently compensated for the decrease.

Dr. Krugman’s conclusion? The stimulus “wasn’t big enough to do the job.”

For the right of center perspective, Stanford economist John Taylor said this during his congressional testimony on the 2009 stimulus package:

  • Referring to federal government purchases of goods and services, he said it had a minimal impact on GDP because a “tiny slice” of dollars were allocated to federal direct spending.
  • For the grants that states and local governments got, they mainly used the money they got to reduce their borrowing rather than spend it on GDP related goods and services.
  • Similarly, payments and tax benefits targeted for increasing households’ disposable personal income were not reflected by expenditure statistics.

Dr. Taylor’s conclusion? “Increased debt…is likely a drag on economic growth.”

The Economic Lesson

People who agree with Dr. Krugman believe, as did John Maynard Keynes, that government can jumpstart the economy

Those who support Dr. Taylor’s view would take us to Adam Smith, Friedrich Hayek, and Milton Friedman who said that government inhibits individual productivity and initiative.

An Economic Question: Do you believe that government is the solution or the problem? Explain.

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What if the Congress decides to slash spending by $60 billion right now? Prominent economists are again disagreeing.

According to Stanford economist John Taylor, we would have a resurgence of business confidence, renewed investment spending and new jobs. Assured that taxes and regulation will not increase, businesses will expand.

On the other hand, economist Mark Zandi (Moody’s Analytics) says that we will lose 700,000 jobs because of spending cuts. He is against “too much too soon.” Referring to “fiscal drag,” economist Alec Phillips (Goldman Sachs) cites the rippling impact of less federal spending that will retard GDP growth.

Who is right?

The Economic Lesson

Looking back and looking forward, the economic debate about fiscal policy is a traditional one. Looking back at stimulus spending since 2008, opponents point out that the stimulus will not only ignite inflation but also was not really necessary. Meanwhile, advocates say we are much better off because of it. Looking forward they differ on how businesses and unemployment will respond.

Also, we should not forget about monetary policy. A similar debate surrounds Dr. Bernanke’s QE2.

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