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Tag Archives: Lyndon Johnson

For most economists, historians, social scientists, it is tough to avoid research bias

President Obama has been having dinner with historians.

Described by the NY Times as a “largely left tilting group,” the names I consistently discovered that attended the dinners were: Doris Kearns Goodwin, Michael Beschloss, Robert Caro, Robert Dallek, Douglas Brinkley, H. W. “Billam” Brands, David Kennedy, Kenneth Mack, and Garry Wills.

Politico reports that during the May 2011 dinner, historian Robert Dallek asked the President how they could help him. The President replied, “What you could do for me is to help me find a way to discuss the issue of inequality in our society without being accused of class warfare.”

How to discuss inequality? I hope that people look at comments from Branko Milanovic, a former lead economist at the World Bank. Perhaps a dialogue on inequality should involve the key questions that Milanovic presents in The Haves and the Have-Nots.

  1. What is the cause of inequality? For example, does income inequality increase or decrease as the economy grows. (Called the Kuznets Hypothesis, one theory says inequality is like an inverted “U.” As an economy grows, it moves from equality–lots of poverty–to inequality when some prosper, and then as an advanced economy, to more equality because the state redistributes income.)
  2. What is the impact of inequality? For example, does inequality create positive or negative economic incentives? Does it lead to more foreign investment, education and growth? How is governance affected?
  3. What are the ethical implications of inequality? For example, are there good and bad ways to have ascended to affluence? Are the absolute incomes of the poor increasing? Is inequality because of work more acceptable than inequality because of inheritance?

 

How would you connect public policy and your answers to these questions?

And, finally: When the President told the group he was considering “A New Foundation” as the theme for his administration(s), Doris Kearns Goodwin, author of books on Lyndon Johnson, FDR, Abraham Lincoln, the Kennedys suggested that “A New Foundation” might not be the best choice. “Why not?” the President asked. “It sounds,” said Goodwin, “like a woman’s girdle.”

Other slogans? Woodrow Wilson’s New Freedom, Theodore Roosevelt’s Square Deal, FDR’s New Deal, Harry Truman’s Fair Deal, John F. Kennedy’s New Frontier, Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society.

Sources and Resources: My information about the President’s historian dinners was primarily from the NY Times and Politico. But, what I most recommend is the Branko Milanovic book, The Haves and Have-Nots: A Brief and Idiosyncratic History of Global Inequality. A combination of great vignettes and scholarly ideas, it is a good read.

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The ratio is 3 to 1. The “3″ is how much Medicare recipients are receiving. The “1″ is what they paid.

Still though, you can see from this NPR report why most people call Medicare an entitlement.

According to a study from the Urban Institute, an average worker starting Medicare in 2010 paid close to $55,000 in Medicare taxes. That same person’s lifetime Medicare benefit (from age 65 until death) is projected to total $161,000. You can see here how taxes and benefits for Medicare and Social Security vary between 1960 and 2030.

Rather similar to other pay-as-you go systems, taxes from current wage earners pay for current Medicare recipients. And therein lies the problem. Baby boomers, who far outnumber all other generations, have just started turning 65. Meanwhile, birth rates are falling and longevity is rising.

Solutions? Higher taxes? Lower benefits? Cost control? Privatization? More borrowing through U.S. bond sales to China and Japan?

The Economic Lesson

During 1965, President Lyndon Johnson called Wilbur Mills, chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, and said, “Wilbur, I’ve just been looking through the polls here, and I’ve only got a few weaknesses, and the worst of them is that I’m not doing anything for the old folks. I need some help from you.
The result? Congress passes Medicare Parts A and B.

An Economic Question: Which new incentives would you suggest for the Congress, for Medicare recipients, and for healthcare providers to solve the Medicare problem?

 

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late 1940s:
Harry Truman proposed (unsuccessfully) what is now called a single -payer plan.
Congressmen Richard Nixon and Jacob Javits supported (unsuccessfully) a government

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