Posts Tagged ‘NBER’

  • CEPR not sure if recession phase of business cycle has ended in euro area

    The Reason That Recession Dates Matter

    Jun 20, 14 • 595 Views • No Comments

    Asked to define a recession, you can give the mechanical answer. It is 2 or more adjacent quarters of a real GDP decline. So, if Q1 GDP grows by 3%, Q2 by 2% and then Q3 by 1%, is that a recession? (I always use that as a tricky quiz question.) No, it is not...  [read more]

  • Obama/Biden and Romney/Ryan Issues

    Election Economics: Comparing Economic Recoveries

    Oct 29, 12 • 327 Views • No Comments

    Illustrated by this graph from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, sometimes one orange line can create a huge debate. The thick orange line representing the US recovery from the December 2007-June 2009 recession reflects a tepid ascent next to curves that...  [read more]

  • An Upward Dow Helps an Incumbent President

    Unusual Economic Indicators

    Mar 18, 12 • 309 Views • No Comments

    If you see women in long skirts at “sit-down” restaurants, then the economy is probably expanding. Since 1926 when the hemline index was first expressed, economists have assumed that hemlines fall if the economy contracts and rise during...  [read more]

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    It’s Official

    Sep 21, 10 • 264 Views • No Comments

    We now know when the recession officially ended. But I still wonder whether we are moving along a “V”, a “U”, a “W” or an “L”. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the recession began...  [read more]

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    Is It Over?

    Apr 14, 10 • 290 Views • No Comments

    Imagine a “u” attached to a slightly (or considerably) higher upside down “u” and you are looking at 2 business cycles. A business cycle includes a peak, a contraction, a trough, and an expansion. Most people think that this...  [read more]