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Tag Archives: NHTSA

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The goal is energy conservation. But what is the best way?

During the end of August, our newest fuel economy standards were announced. Now CAFE, our Corporate Average Fuel Economy mandate, is close to 29 miles per gallon. The goal is 35.5 for 2016 and 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. So auto manufacturers have the incentive to produce hybrids, cars with more efficient gas mileage, electrified vehicles, lighter cars.

This takes us to the “rebound effect.” As we explained in a past Econlife post

“Citing the ‘rebound effect,’ a New Yorker Magazine article introduces us to {an 1865} book called The Coal Question…{which}explains that the energy efficiency created by the steam engine encouraged more energy use rather than less. {19th century economic thinker William} Jevons said, ‘It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is truth.’”

What really makes us conserve? The law of demand. When prices rise, we are willing and able to buy less.

Or, as financial journalist Eduardo Porter explains, gas taxes are much better than CAFE because they make us drive less. Porter then describes what happens next, “When time came to replace the old family S.U.V., we would be more likely to consider a more fuel-efficient option. As more Americans sought gas-sipping hybrids, carmakers would develop more efficient vehicles.” For example, In the UK where the gas tax is $3.95 a gallon, Ford’s compact Fiesta goes 72 miles on a gallon. In the US, the number for the Fiesta is 33 MPG.

But, will you vote for a politician that supports higher taxes?

Sources and Resources: For the source of my Porter quote and much more detail on the cost benefit tradeoff between CAFE and gas taxes, this Porter article is excellent as is this New Yorker article that discusses the “rebound effect.” In addition, the specifics of CAFE standards are described further by the NY Times and an NHTSA press release.

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How will a 54.5 mpg CAFE (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) mandate affect us?

We start with a mystery.  Because Minivans are big and heavy, they should be the source of a large proportion of all traffic fatalities in 2-car accidents. But they are not.

Why?

Economist Mark Jacobsen says that Minivans are safer because of their drivers. Minivans are driven in urban areas for family use by people with more education. Jacobsen hypothesizes that these people drive more safely.

By contrast, as the source of a high proportion of fatalities, large pickup trucks appear to be less safe. In 2-car accidents, among 10 vehicle classes, large pickups are the source of the most fatalities because of deaths in the other vehicle. Similarly, single car fatality rates are topped by pickup trucks. Here, Dr. Jacobsen suggests that less safe drivers buy large pickups.

Looking at the impact of fuel economy mandates, Dr. Jacobsen focused on driving behavior and auto engineering. Among drivers, age, gender, income, urban density, “taste for safety,” alcohol consumption and regard for traffic signals influence car accident rates. On the engineering side, yes, there are more accidents when weight drops. It has been estimated that the tradeoff is 2000 extra traffic fatalities for every 1.7 billion gallons of gasoline that we save from federal fuel economy mandates that lead to lighter cars. On the other hand, though, some say that the problem is the heavy cars. As cars get lighter because of fuel economy standards, they will be less lethal and fatality numbers will decline. Also, if drivers of heavier cars like Minivans and large pickup truck move to lighter vehicles, will their driving habits accompany them?

This returns us to 54.5 mpg.

Yesterday the NHTSA (National Highway Traffic Safety Administration) announced that, “The Obama Administration today finalized groundbreaking standards that will increase fuel economy to the equivalent of 54.5 mpg for cars and light-duty trucks by Model Year 2025.”

As economists we should ask about cost, benefit and incentives. We can try to predict the impact of a 54.5 mpg CAFE mandate on fatalities, on consumers, on manufacturers and on carbon emissions. As you can see, though, all are difficult to assess. 54.5 MPG might have a vast array of unexpected consequences.

To read all that Dr. Jacobsen says about the most beneficial approach to fuel economy, you can read his papers here and here. And here is the NHTSA press release on the fuel economy mandates. Finally, here, econlife discusses Ford’s response to fuel economy with a lighter more expensive pickup truck.

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