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Tag Archives: Nudge

Decisions Have An Opportunity Cost That Require Tradeoffs

After reading Murder at the Margin, some of my students suggested in essays that we do not need a psychiatrist to explain human behavior. Instead, just ask a behavioral economist. Let’s give it a try…

Defaulting:

  • In life, we tend to take the default selection. So whether downloading software or selecting a spouse, be sure the default is best for you. And if you are the producer, know that a default will shape the response for your good or service.

Framing:

  • Be aware that what precedes a decision shapes its content. If a gallon of gas has gone down from $5.00 to 4.00 to $3.50, we are pleased with $3.50. However, when prices climb to $3.50, it sounds high. Similarly, told before a serious operation that 90 people out of 100 survive, most feel optimistic. Framed instead by the fact that 10 people out of 100 die, the prognosis alarms doctors and patients.

Automatic decisions:

  • Watch out for your automatic/nonthinking response. Making a decision, people typically have an instantaneous automatic response and one that involves more thinking. So, when faced with a “stop sign” that says, “go,” at first we stop although the sign instructs the opposite. With product design also, our automatic response counts. Take, for example, stovetop knob design. Shown by the first diagram below, many stovetops have a knob line-up that prevents us from responding automatically. The second diagram, below, represents a more functional design.


Our Bottom Line: Because incentives that are not always rational shape how we act at home, at work, and in response to government, behavioral economists can do a good job of explaining life and suggesting how to design policy.

Sources: For further behavioral economics insight, I not only recommend the source of all of my above examples, Nudge by Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein, but also Thinking, Fast and Slow by Daniel Kahneman, Predictably Irrational by Dan Ariely and Wait by Frank Partnoy. For a more academic look at the connection between incentives and behavior, this paper provides insight. And here, you can read more about Murder at the Margin, a mystery whose protagonist is an economics professor who solves a murder using  behavioral economics.

Stove top knob line-ups: In the bottom diagram, you can match the knob to the burner automatically but not with the first one.

Knob alignment does not imply which knob to use.

Knob alignment suggests which one to use.

 

Monday Behavioral Economics Posts

 

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Saving for Retirement

More of us are worried about financing retirement. But it’s not the “gloomy boomers” who said three years ago, at 50 or so, that they feared outliving their money. Now, according to Pew Research, the most worried demographic is adults in their late 30s.

However, if you look at the St. Louis Fed graph below, we are not doing a very good job of saving. One reason might be our relationship with our future selves.

I just read a fascinating study about retirement savings decisions in which researchers created elderly lifelike images of participants in a virtual mirror. The results? People who actually saw their future aged selves saved more. And, when experimenters had those self images respond happily or sadly to amounts of savings, more was set aside.

Where does this leave us? With Social Security and Medicare soon to experience severe financial difficulties, retirement savings are ever more important. And yet most of us, worried or not, tend to favor current consumption over saving. For that reason, social scientists and neuroscientists are suggesting how to change our savings behavior. Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein have described a default savings option that people would actively have to reject. Or maybe the answer is some form of pre-commitment before the actual time to make the savings decision arrives. And now, we are also advised that if we see our elderly self, we can diminish the “empathy gap.”

A final thought: Observing your future self could relate to a host of decisions. For example, before devouring 10 chocolate chip cookies, should your virtual mirror reflect the weight gain?

Sources and Resources: My reading for this post took me to a Bloomberg article, the “virtual mirror” research, and the Pew Research study on retirement worries. I also looked at the St. Louis Fed for savings trends and went back to Nudge by Thaler and Sunstein.

The ratio of personal saving to disposable personal income, our personal savings rate, is dipping.

US Personal Savings Rates are Low

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Affecting the cost of animal feed and lowering the amount of milk from cows, the drought is pushing up milk prices.

This sign in Arizona’s Petrified Forest was having little impact:

“Your heritage is being vandalized every day by theft losses of petrified wood of 14 tons a year, mostly a small piece at a time.”

However, after some sign experimentation, they understood why. Researchers tried out 2 kinds of signs.

  1. Paired with a picture of visitors admiring and photographing a piece of wood, the sign asked people to leave wood in the forest.
  2. Paired with a picture of a person taking wood, the sign asked people not to remove wood.

 

Their conclusion? Because the signs conveyed different social norms, the first one was more successful than the second in generating desirable behavior.

Similarly, the same researchers looked into why a group of homeowners had not reduced energy usage when asked either 1) to reduce resource use, 2) help future generations, or 3) save money. However, they did respond more proactively when told, “The majority of your neighbors are regularly undertaking efforts to reduce energy. Please do it too.”

Again, the same conclusion. The key is establishing a social norm. People seem to engage in a requested behavior when they find out that everyone else is doing the same thing.

Where does all of this take us? Flip an issue to the positive side to get the behavior you want. Say that most people pay taxes, a lot of us conserve energy, and many individuals vote to get more people to do the “right” thing. Also, econlife looks at how a health insurance mandate and social norms could be connected.

In “Following the Herd,” Chapter 3 from Nudge and in this Freakonomics podcast, you can hear more about how social norms shape our behavior. And, for a more academic discussion about the Petrified Forest experiment and others, you might enjoy this paper written by a group led by Robert Cialdini.

Finally, are you a follower? When asked, participants in social norm experiments emphatically said no. And yet, the data in the experiments indicated the opposite.

 

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