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Tag Archives: rebound effect

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The goal is energy conservation. But what is the best way?

During the end of August, our newest fuel economy standards were announced. Now CAFE, our Corporate Average Fuel Economy mandate, is close to 29 miles per gallon. The goal is 35.5 for 2016 and 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. So auto manufacturers have the incentive to produce hybrids, cars with more efficient gas mileage, electrified vehicles, lighter cars.

This takes us to the “rebound effect.” As we explained in a past Econlife post

“Citing the ‘rebound effect,’ a New Yorker Magazine article introduces us to {an 1865} book called The Coal Question…{which}explains that the energy efficiency created by the steam engine encouraged more energy use rather than less. {19th century economic thinker William} Jevons said, ‘It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is truth.’”

What really makes us conserve? The law of demand. When prices rise, we are willing and able to buy less.

Or, as financial journalist Eduardo Porter explains, gas taxes are much better than CAFE because they make us drive less. Porter then describes what happens next, “When time came to replace the old family S.U.V., we would be more likely to consider a more fuel-efficient option. As more Americans sought gas-sipping hybrids, carmakers would develop more efficient vehicles.” For example, In the UK where the gas tax is $3.95 a gallon, Ford’s compact Fiesta goes 72 miles on a gallon. In the US, the number for the Fiesta is 33 MPG.

But, will you vote for a politician that supports higher taxes?

Sources and Resources: For the source of my Porter quote and much more detail on the cost benefit tradeoff between CAFE and gas taxes, this Porter article is excellent as is this New Yorker article that discusses the “rebound effect.” In addition, the specifics of CAFE standards are described further by the NY Times and an NHTSA press release.

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19th Century Urban Transport Was An Environmental Problem

Hearing Kermit the Frog say, “It’s not easy being green,” Mexican environmentalists might agree.

Since March 2009, Mexican households have been offered cash payments or subsidized loans for replacing refrigerators and air-conditioners that were more than 10 years old with new energy efficient appliances. The goal was to diminish electricity usage and carbon dioxide emissions. So far, 1.5 million households have participated.

Surprisingly, refrigerator savings were less than expected and air-conditioner use increased. Researchers believe that newer refrigerator models were larger and had extra features like ice makers that somewhat offset their energy savings. For air-conditioners, people just used them much more.

Energy savings programs are tough to design and evaluate. As with refrigerators and air-conditioners, changing incentives can have unpredictable consequences. In addition, even if an energy savings program does not save energy, it still could provide considerable benefits far beyond its costs because of better refrigeration and cooler homes. And finally, we should always remember the “rebound” effect. Explained by William Jevons in an 1865 book called The Coal Question, the “rebound” effect resulted when the energy efficiency created by the steam engine encouraged more energy use rather than less. Jevons said, “It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is truth.”

Maybe Kermit was right.

This NBER paper fully describes  the Mexican cash for coolers program and if you want to read more about the rebound effect, I suggest this fascinating New Yorker article.  For a more academic study, this Congressional Research Service (CRS) report explains that the “rebound” effect is most evident in a developing economy because slack demand can lead to considerable increase in energy use. In a mature market, the “rebound” effect is less pronounced.

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True or False? When we become more energy efficient, we use up fewer resources.

This New Yorker Magazine article says maybe. Citing the “rebound effect,” the article briefly takes us back to Williams Jevons, England, and 1865. In a book called The Coal Question, Jevons explains that the energy efficiency created by the steam engine encouraged more energy use rather than less. Jevons said, “It is wholly a confusion of ideas to suppose that the economical use of fuel is equivalent to a diminished consumption. The very contrary is truth.”

Also though, the article takes us to a somewhat different conclusion. As explained in a Congressional Research Service (CRS) report, the “rebound effect” is most evident in a developing economy. Why? Slack demand can lead to considerable increase in energy use. In a mature market, the “rebound effect” is less pronounced.

The “rebound effect” reminds me of the Peltzman Effect. As Peltzman describes it, when regulation changes incentives, people’s response can offset the intent of the regulation. For example, because seat belts protect us, we might drive more dangerously. Because Lipitor controls cholesterol, we might eat more fatty meats.

The Economic Lesson

As economists, we can say it is all about opportunity cost. As the opportunity cost of using a commodity decreases, we tend to use more of it. Diminished opportunity cost is one reason that demand slopes downward. The lower the price, the more we want because we sacrifice less to get it.

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