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Tag Archives: retirement

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Topping its front page with “CUT, RAISE, RAISE, LOWER, REPEAL, SCRAP, CUT, CUT,” The Wall Street Journal told readers some of the new deficit commission’s proposals. 1) For defense spending, the cut would be $100 billion. 2) The Social Security age would rise to 69 by 2075. 3) The gas tax would go up 15 cents. 4) The corporate tax rate would go down to 26%. 5) The alternative minimum tax would be repealed. 6) There would no longer be deductions for mortgages over 500k. 7) The federal work force would be cut by 10%. 8) Farm subsidies would drop by $3 billion.

For each proposal, already, a mountain of pro and con opinions is building. For example, just for changing the Social Security retirement age, the list of arguments on both sides is long because affluence, health, job history, and gender all relate to how Social Security impacts you. Supporters point out that when Social Security was passed in 1935, the average life span was, at 61.7, 3.3 years less than the retirement age. In 2035, 20% of the U.S. population is projected to be 65 or older. Responding, economist Paul Krugman says, “working until you’re 69…is a lot harder…for…Americans who still do physical labor.” Also, he says that high earners live longer.

The Economic Lesson

Defined on Planet Money, a public good is “something that we all need that will make our lives better, but the market will not and cannot provide.”  Podcast examples included lighthouses and autopsies.

Should government pay only for “public goods?” We would not have a deficit problem.

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It is more likely that a 75 year-old South Korean will be working than a 60 year old Frenchman. According to OECD (Organization of Economic Cooperation and development) statistics cited by Floyd Norris, workers in South Korea and Japan remain in the labor force longer than their French counterparts.

Is this good or bad? It might depend on how you answer the following questions:

1. Is grandpa taking junior’s job?

2. Can government afford to take care of grandpa?

3. Does grandpa like his job?

The Economic Lesson

While France is hit by demonstrations against raising the retirement age to 62, South Korea is scheduling “silver job fairs” to help older workers find jobs. Understanding the different approaches takes us to the political, economic, and social implications of fiscal policy–government spending, taxing, and borrowing.

 

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In France, a 24 hour workers’ strike brought retirement rights back to the headlines. Saying that a 60 year old retirement age was no longer affordable, French President Sarkozy has proposed moving it up to 62. French workers disagree.

In the U.S., a leader of the Older Women’s League (OWL) reacted angrily to a comment about Social Security from former Senator Alan Simpson. Mr. Simpson is the co-chairman of the recently created National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform. Using rather vivid language, Mr. Simpson said that Social Security would not have the future capabiity to continue its current obligations. In an email, OWL responded that Mr. Simpson displayed, “…his clear disrespect for Social Security, women and the American people…”

You can see the dilemma. Our resources are limited. In most eurozone countries and in the U.S. federal spending is skyrocketing. To what extent should we provide support to an aging population?

The Economic Lesson

Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system; today’s workers pay the benefits for today’s recipients. When Social Security began in 1935, there were 42 workers for each beneficiary, life expectancy was close to 62, and benefits began at 65. Today, U.S. life expectancy averages close to 78 and minimum benefits can begin at 62. By 2027, the full benefits age will gradually have risen from 65 to 67. Currently, while there are approximately 3.3 workers for each beneficiary, for 2030 the projection is 2.2.

In France also, and in other OECD countries, the older population is growing and birth rates have diminished. By 2050, if current labor force participation rates remain the same, in Europe, there will be one worker for every retired person.

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