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Tag Archives: Romney/Ryan

Obama/Biden and Romney/Ryan Issues

Is the US economy less sick? Comparing January 2009 when Obama became president and now, let’s see how its “symptoms” have changed.

Approximately the Same:

  • Jobs: During January, 2009, the employment number, 133 million, was very similar to today’s. Unemployment too, was close to 8% then and during August.
  • Incomes: Close to $32,000, average real disposable income is pretty close to where it was 4 years ago. By disposable income, we mean the amount we have left to spend after taxes and inflation.
  • Homeowners’ Equity: The amount of ownership people have in their houses remains at approximately 40%. (In 2005, homeowners’ equity was far better at 60%. But then the stock and housing markets crashed and we also had the Dec. 2007-June 2009 recession.)

 

Worse:

  • Gasoline prices: The average price of a gallon of regular gas went up from $1.79 to $3.72.

 

Better:

  • Stock Markets: Reflected by the Dow, stock market indices have soared but they are only returning to previous highs that pre-dated 2009.

 

This Washington Post chart from financial columnist Robert Samuelson summarizes the data:

2009 2012 Percent change
Jobs (in millions) 133.6 133.2 -0.3
Unemployment rate (percent) 7.8 8.3 +6.4
Disposable per capita income (2005 dollars, adjusted for inflation) $32,417 $32,778 +1.1
Average hourly earnings $22.03 $23.52 +6.8
Inflation (January 2009 = 100) 100 107.9 +7.9
Gallon of gasoline $1.79 $3.72 +107.8
Dow Jones industrial average 8,281 13,292 +60.5
Consumer confidence(1985 = 100) 37.4 60.6 +62.0

 

Where does it all take us? To the GDP.

As a measure of our overall health, GDP, the dollar value of the goods and services we annually produce, is an ideal “thermometer.” During the first quarter of 2009, the GDP decreased at a 5.9% rate. Currently, for the second quarter of 2012, it grew 1.7%. So yes, the GDP has improved considerably but, with a 1.7% growth rate, it is still not healthy. (Here is more GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Research, BEA.)

And finally, returning to the candidates, which “medicine” will make the GDP better?Obama/Biden’s government remedies or Romney/Ryan’s business cure?

Sources and Resources: Many of the ideas and almost all of the stats I cite are from Robert Samuelson’s September 6th Washington Post column, “Are Your Better Off Now Than Four Years Ago?” To compare the “better off” question with other presidencies, this WSJ.com interactive is fascinating.

Election Economics Topics:

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Obama/Biden and Romney/Ryan Issues

People tend to ask, “Who??” when Friedrich von Hayek is named as Paul Ryan’s economic muse. Our purpose right now is to get to know some Hayek basics to see what Ryan brings to the Romney/Ryan candidacy.

Austrian born, a naturalized British citizen, a University of Chicago professor, Friedrich von Hayek (1899-1992) was an economist who saw firsthand the Austrian hyperinflation that followed WW I. Working for the Austrian government, in just 9 months, through 200 pay increases, Hayek blamed government when his salary rose from 5,000 kronen to 1 million but his buying power remained the same. At the London School of Economics, supporting less government, during the 1930s and through the war, he debated John Maynard Keynes (1883-1946; an advocate of government stimulus programs for an economy in depression).

Thinking of Hayek, we can remember two words: prices and freedom.

Prices:

  • Hayek believed that prices provide crucial information. In a market economy, millions of individuals use prices to figure out value as they make decisions about what to produce and what to buy. Without markets, there are no prices. Without prices, there can be no data on which to base production and distribution decisions. Any attempt by government to do central planning was futile because government could not possibly gather the countless bits of pricing information that millions of businesses and consumer use to make individual decisions.

 

Freedom:

  • Hayek said that economic freedom could not be separated from political freedom. Whenever government curtailed the right of the individual to use prices to make buying and selling decisions, it was limiting a fundamental right.

 

As a result, though, Hayek challenged the world’s idealists and optimists by saying you cannot use government to make the world a better place because it will not work. Since government cannot have the (price) data to make the appropriate decisions that only countless individuals separately know, it will ultimately create huge problems like the Austrian hyperinflation that following the WW I.

As the Chair of the House Budget Committee, with Hayek’s ideas as some of his rationale, Representative Paul Ryan (R-Wisconsin) has sought to diminish the healthcare role government is playing through Medicare and Medicaid. In future posts, we will look at the specifics.

My Sources: I started getting to know Paul Ryan through this New Yorker article and an NPR Fresh Air podcast interview of Ryan Lizza, its writer. To become more familiar with Friedrich von Hayek and his most famous book, The Road to Serfdom, I read Nicholas Wapshott’s Keynes Hayek: The Clash That Defined Modern Economics and Sylvia Nasar’s Grand Pursuit The Story of Economic Genius.  For a much shorter bio, I suggest econlib summary of Hayek and his ideas.

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