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Tag Archives: Social Security Trust Fund

Social Security lock box

During the 2000 presidential campaign, candidate Al Gore referred to the lockbox in which he would keep the Social Security surplus.

Still today, we can imagine a box filled with the dollars that have been accumulating since President Ronald Reagan sought to guarantee the health of Social Security with the 1983 Amendments to the Social Security Act. Raising Social Security taxes, one goal of the Amendments was to replenish the system’s surpluses.

Now, almost exactly 30 years later, is the box full?

Yes. But not with cash.

Social Security is a pay-as-you-go system. The money from your paycheck tax will go to my grandma and your grandpa and all who currently receive benefits. All leftover money is used to purchase US Treasury securities. Because Treasuries represent loans to the US government, the Social Security surplus might be used to diminish the US debt or to pay for government spending. According to the Social Security website, it goes into the federal government’s general fund.

So, if you open the lid of that imaginary lockbox, you would see an imaginary pile of Treasury Securities that represent loans to the US government. Those securities are IOUs. Or, quoting Nobel laureate Milton Friedman, one Barron’s columnist said that they are really “I-Owe-Me’s.”

April 20 1983, President Ronald Reagan, signing ceremony for Social Security Amendments

Sources and Resources: This 2001 PBS report tells the lockbox story while Barron’s, here, discusses the Treasuries in the lockbox. Meanwhile, at Social Security websites, you can find a wealth of information:

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When you combine better health care with generous pensions you get (choose one):

  • happy retirees
  • happy politicians
  • insufficiently funded national pension programs
  • the eurozone
  • the United States
  • other

 

To select an answer let’s begin with 1935. Just passed, the Social Security Act will start giving benefits to people 65 and older in several years. With 41.9 workers for every retiree in 1945 and 16.5 in 1950, the revenue source was more than sufficient. Moreover, life expectancy was 58 for men and 62 for women. (Adults who reached 21 did have a 50-60 percent chance of reaching 65 and beyond.)

Fast forward to 2012. The average man lives until approximately 76 and the average woman, 81. The worker retiree ratio for 2012 is 2.8. And as more baby boomers retire, it will get worse.

The Social Security Trustees just announced that because current workers’ checks could not cover retirees’ obligations, the system had a deficit during 2010, 2011 and probably for 2012. The good news is that they have a Trust Fund to cover deficits. The bad new is that the Trust Fund will probably be empty in 2033. That means benefits will have to plunge or taxes soar or the age of eligibility change. Or maybe the unexpected will occur and all will remain okay.

More daunting, in Europe, by age 55, more than one third of the population of all countries has retired except for Sweden, Denmark and Finland. You know the eurozone situation– huge pension obligations, free access to health care, retirement length averaging 13-20 years, and unemployment averaging 10.8 percent in February.

Returning to the quiz, what might you fill in for “other?”

You might want to look at this historical chart of worker beneficiary ratios since 1945, pp. 52-53 in Trustees 2012 report and at the chart of life expectancy for Social Security in one of their historical documents. For Europe, I got my statistics from this article which uses Eurostats as its source.

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