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Tag Archives: tariffs

Tax Revenue

In 1789, Benjamin Franklin said that “…in this world nothing is certain but death and taxes.” With taxes, we can also be certain that the system will be complex and people will question its fairness.

Complexity:

Because professional athletes pay taxes in many of the places they’ve played, they have to navigate a tax maze. Any hockey, baseball or basketball player who had games in Pennsylvania paid taxes based on a ratio between total games played (including pre- and post- season) and games in the state. Athletes who played in Michigan have the same ratio but without the pre-season. For football players who had Pennsylvania games, the ratio compares total days worked. Meanwhile, Pittsburgh’s 3% tax for the games played there can be offset with a federal deduction. In addition, there are reciprocity deals where paying tax in one state like Pennsylvania (a 3.07% rate) means not paying in NJ (8.97%) or Indiana (3.4%).

You can see where this story is going. Not really about athletes, it is all about a complex tax system. While the first 1040 form in 1914 had a single instruction page, the current one has 189 pages. Add to that the different state regulations and the average person devotes 27 hours annually to tax preparation.

100 years ago, on February 25th, the 16th Amendment to the US Constitution legalized an income tax. Implementing the tax, the House passed legislation during May that was signed by President Woodrow Wilson in October, 1913. That bill was 14 pages long. As for rates, the maximum was 7% on incomes over $500,000 and 1% for those at $3,000 (equal to $69,649.80 today). The forms?  The first 1040 form was 3 pages long. Still though, even then, there were deductions and loopholes.

Fairness:

Before that first federal tax was passed, many thought the tariffs that had been providing most federal revenue were unfair. Consumers were bearing the burden, domestic manufactures were protected, and prices were higher than they might have been. During the 1920s, the debate centered on tax rates with Treasury Secretary Mellon saying that high income tax rates  ”kill the spirit of business adventure” while cutting taxes will “advance general prosperity.” (sound familiar?) The, during the 1930s, add the onset of Social Security and questions about the size of a safety net.

Fast forward to today and we have the same complexity challenges and fairness debates.

Tax rate history for someone with income of $10,000,000.

A tax rate history for the most affluent: Someone currently earning $10,000,000.

Sources and Resources: Sadly, two excellent tax history articles, one at WSJ.com by John Steele Gordon and the other at The New Yorker by Jill Lepore, are both gated. I do recommend, though, this Forbes blog from which I got my sports tax facts and this Quartz interactive for a history of individual income tax rates and the source of the above graph.

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In China, a Big Mac costs close to the equivalent of $2.44. That same burger in the US is $4.20. The basic idea is PPP, purchasing power parity. The dollar can buy more when the yuan is undervalued. And President Obama and Governor Romney have both indicated that an undervalued yuan displeases them.

Actually, they probably would not mind if price fluctuated naturally in foreign currency markets. Instead though, they say currency manipulation might be occurring because a government is intentionally, over a long time period, affecting the demand for and/or supply of its money. And by impacting demand and/or supply, they are shaping its price.

China, though, is not the only one. We could add to the list, Denmark, Hong Kong, Israel, Japan, Singapore, Taiwan, Korea, Switzerland, Argentina, Bolivia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, Angola, Algeria, Libya, Saudi Arabia, Azerbaijan, Russia. Some overvalue and others undervalue. But all, according to the Peterson Institute, are engaging in “currency manipulation.”

Finally though, I wonder whether currency “manipulation” is necessarily bad. One position says, “Yes.” An undervalued foreign currency lowers US demand for US made goods and destroys US jobs. The other side says that consumers and businesses that purchase Chinese goods benefit from their artificially low prices. Because consumers have extra money to spend elsewhere, jobs are created. In addition, businesses that buy Chinese metals and motors, for example, have lower costs.

Sources and Resources: To check out the PPP of other currencies, you might enjoy the Big Mac Index and also an econlife PPP explanation. For all the detail you could ever want about currency manipulation from many viewpoints, this Peterson Institute paper, this Treasury Department report and this Mark Perry blog are ideal complements.

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US Chicken Paw Exports to China

Yesterday’s headlines about the US taking China to the World Trade Organization (WTO) for unfair auto and auto parts subsidies took me to chicken feet and The Economist’s Sinodependency Index. Knowing the major firms that depend on China for revenue might help us further assess our relationship.

Approximately 20 years ago, chicken paws, used primarily for animal feed, were worthless. Now though, with Perdue producing more than a billion chicken feet a year, paw exports annually return $40 million in revenue. The reason is China.

A delicacy in China, chicken feet are a perfect U.S. export. US chickens are fat and juicy because we grow big chickens. In addition, their “natural scarcity” (only 2 per chicken) bestows some prestige on diners who order them.

Similarly, Intel, Apple, IBM and GE generate considerable revenue from China. Called a Sinodependency Index, The Economist displayed the relative revenue dependence on China of 135 firms in the S&P 500. Their goal was to show the extent to which China has woven its presence within the fabric of world trade.

Although some of their statistics were rough because of each firm’s revenue breakdown, The Economist believed that their Index conveyed the information effectively. In a copy of their chart below (interactive with percents if you visit their site here), you can see their color coding for industry and size coding for how a firm’s revenue compared to the other 134 in the index. The top 10 in their list, in size order, are: Intel, Apple, IBM, GE, Caterpillar, Procter & Gamble, Johnson & Johnson, Yum Brands, Philip Morris, Boeing.

As economists, we could not conclude without mentioning comparative advantage. First explained by 19th century economist David Ricardo, comparative advantage says that worldwide productivity increases when nations specialize and export the good or service for which they sacrifice the least to make. But, what to do when a nation employs unfair trade practices like subsidizing their exports to make them cheaper and adding duties to imports to make them more expensive?

My Sources and Resources: A wonderful podcast and post from Freakonomics was the source of my chicken feet facts while you can look directly at The Economist’s Sinodependency chart, their article and a link to the math behind the Index here. For more on the current trade dispute in the World Trade Organization (WTO), here is one article from Bloomberg. And here, this EconLife post presents more on a past trade dispute with China that involved chicken paws and is the source of 2 sentences in this entry.

Trade Dependency on China From the Economist

135 Firms From S&P 500: Revenue From China from the Economist

 

 

 

 

 

 

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The Panama Canal Project Facilitates World Trade.

To introduce our first international trade discussion in class, I usually ask students to check where their clothing and shoes have been made. Finding labels that say “Made in China, Made in Thailand, Made in Peru…,” they first see how trade touches them.

Then though, the surprises begin.

U.S. businesses benefit considerably. For a $70 pair of sneakers that was Made in China, a 2011 Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco report tells us that transport, wholesale and retail expenses involving US businesses represented 55% of the selling price. As a result, the US truck driver, the US store owner, the US wholesaler and retailer all received some income because of those Chinese sneakers.

US consumers also enjoy benefits from the “Made in China” label. In “The Fruits of Free Trade” from the Dallas Fed is a chart that conveys the trajectory of prices for traded and non-traded goods from 1997 to 2002. For traded goods like video equipment, TV sets and toys, prices plunged while the non-traded goods had price increases. On the flip side, when jobs are protected, the consumer suffers. For apparel and textiles, when trade barriers saved 168,786 jobs, the cost to consumers was $199,241 per job.

So, when 9 Senators introduce legislation to mandate “Made in the USA” Olympic uniforms, they are making a political statement but ignoring the economic realities.

Intuitively though, it is tough to grasp why legislators suggesting home industry might be harming the US economy. Nineteenth century economist David Ricardo first explained the classic defense of world trade through the law of comparative advantage. Basically, he told us to optimize world efficiency and incomes by  ”Doing what we do best and then trading for the rest.” Much more recently, in “Ricardo’s Difficult Idea,” Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman tried to explain why many people have ignored the wisdom of David Ricardo’s ideas.

To read more about the merits of free trade the Federal Reserve reports are here and here while a good bio of David Ricardo is here. You might also want to read this report from Michael Mandel that looks at how we might regain any jobs lost from trade.

 

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The Panama Canal Project Facilitates World Trade.

We might be able to divide the world between economic thinkers and everyone else.

I noted yesterday that economist Gregory Mankiw, as President Bush’s Council of Economic Advisers chair, said that outsourcing was probably a plus in the long run. Hearing his statement, reporters divided into 2 groups.

1. Economic Thinkers: Those from the FT, Wall Street Journal, and a Washington Post reporter who had an economics degree heard what they learned in Economics 101. Trade leads to specialization which means efficiencies that generate higher living standards and incomes. It was a typical economist’s statement about world trade. Nothing out of the ordinary.

2. Everyone Else: The other reporters sensed a big story. They had a viscerally negative response to anyone who said sending jobs elsewhere could be good. For them, the quote was about jobs leaving the country.

You can see the dichotomy. One group thinks more growth while the other sees unemployment. The unemployment group dominated the headlines. Political damage control immediately followed the press conference.

1. Economic Thinkers: It has also been suggested that there is a difference in our response to the word protectionist. Remembering Adam Smith and David Ricardo, people who think economically believe protectionist policies are bad. They cite the Corn Laws in 18th century England that increased the price of domestic corn by taxing imported grains. They think of the Smoot-Hawley tariffs that fueled the severity of the 1930s depression by diminishing international trade.

2. Everyone Else: For many other people, though, protection does not conjure up the negatives. After all, protecting someone can be good.

As a result, the Business Roundtable suggests a new trade lexicon:

Negative Connotation Positive Connotation
Competition Growth
Retool Re-make
Protectionism Isolationism
World trade Working with the world
Long term growth Sustained growth
Global trade Trade
Cheaper Specialized
Forced to Take charge
Cost efficiencies Meeting customers
Making our budget Meeting our needs
Do less with more Do more with more

 

From money (not just currency) to free lunches (there are none), economics is everywhere. Your opinion about how to help everyone think economically?

The idea and most of the information for this post came from Gregory Mankiw’s co-written paper, “The Politics and Economics of Offshore Outsourcing.” It also takes us to a wonderful Teaching Company course, “Thinking Like an Economist,” from Randall Bartlett.

 

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