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Tag Archives: UK

Displaying different strategies, McDonald's and Starbucks call a 16 ounce cup different names.

Among the biggest coffee drinkers in the world, euro-zone consumers are cutting back.

As one Milan café owner explained, “Since the beginning of the year most of our regulars cut their coffees from around four to two a day. Sometimes, instead of getting a cappuccino or other types of more expensive coffees, they just have an espresso. This is the effect of the crisis.”

Meanwhile, in Brazil, partially because of good weather, supply is up for the highest quality beans (arabica) that the Italians and Spanish prefer. In addition, not only have some Europeans begun to switch to cheaper robusta beans but also growers who had withheld their beans awaiting higher prices are now facing a decline that might mean they will sell at a lower price.

It all adds up to classic demand and supply. Because of declining income, the demand curve for troubled euro-zone economies shifted to the left. Meanwhile, with bountiful crops, supply shifted to the right. The result? Price tumbled. And indeed, arabica coffee prices are down 30 percent from a year ago.

Sources and Resources: While I discovered the current status of coffee beans in a Barron’s column, my coffee prices, here, and consumption, here (source of table below), this August WSJ article tells more about European demand and was the source of the above quote. Also, for a nice combination of stats and stories, you might enjoy this Reuters video.

Per Capita Coffee Consumption: 2006/2007

Per capita euro-zone coffee demand is the highes in the world.

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Looming Worldwide Pig Shortage

Announcing the cancellation of this year’s bacon eating contest, Major League Eating (“the world body that governs all stomach-centric sports’) said,  ”We cannot, in good conscience, allow [top ranked eater] Joey Chestnut to eat bacon during a global pork shortage,…We estimate that Joey alone could eat 20 pounds of bacon in 10 minutes of competition.”

Where is the pork shortage?

First stop, the US:

  • Skyrocketing corn prices make feeding pigs so expensive that farmers are killing their livestock. Actually, we have a pork glut now–up 31% between last August and this August according to the USDA. But less livestock will probably create a shortage during 2013.

 

Next, the European Union:

  • Britain’s National Pig Association (NPA) reports steep declines in Poland’s, Sweden’s, and Ireland’s pig population. Compounding the problem, in the UK, the NPA says sow herd size will probably drop by 20%.

 

And finally, China:

  • With global pork prices ascending, will China need even more inventory for its Strategic Pork Reserve (SPR)? Created during 2007 after porcine blue ear disease diminished the Chinese pig population, the SPR continues to stock hundreds of millions of pounds of frozen pork that are ready for release when prices spike. (But, according to the NY Times, frozen pork only lasts 4 months so maintaining the supply is more complicated than just keeping frozen meat.)

 

This returns us to the bacon eating contest cancellations. With pork so pricey, pancake contests are getting more publicity. Here, an economist would point out the unintended consequences. Who would have thought that a congressional ethanol mandate could have pushed corn prices upward, the pig population downward, and led to more pancakes???

Sources and Resources: My information on pig populations came from a Foreign Policy blog, a Washington Post blog, this Huffington Post article, and on China’s SPR, here. To describe Major League Eating, I used their publicity.

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The 2016 Olympics in Rio might be different.

At the 1996 Atlanta Olympics, Great Britain fared poorly. They took home only one gold and ranked #36 among medal winners. At Beijing in 2008, their medal count was 47 and they ranked #4. And now in London, 2012, they are faring even better. What happened?

After Atlanta, the UK decided to elevate their Olympic performance. With money from the national lottery, they funded athletes’ living expenses, training, nutrition, physiotherapy. Combining world class coaches, talented athletes, consistent funding and wise leadership, they got Olympic gold.

Or, we could say that…

TALENT times MONEY equals MEDALS.

And that takes us to Rio De Janeiro, Brazil and August 5, 2016. Western Europe and the US have been top Olympic medals winners. However, emerging economies are becoming more affluent and allocating more resources to women. Argentina is using a levy on mobile fund subscriptions to fund elite sports. Former communist nations continue to focus on athletic performance. Meanwhile though, most euro zone nations have less money to spend.

Does a shift in worldwide affluence portend a new Olympic order?

To see the current Olympic ranking, this Huffington Post interactive is superb. It not only presents bubbles to show medal winners but then weights them according to GDP and population. Based on her GDP, for example, teeny Grenada is actually faring quite well. The Guardian was my source for information on the UK Olympic turnaround and I found the Olympic “success” formula in an insightful FT article. This Globe and Mail article is also excellent.

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Tax Revenue

Talking about taxes, economists like to quote Louis XIV’s finance minister: “The art of taxation consists of so plucking the goose as to obtain the largest amount of feathers with the least possible amount of hissing.”

We have been hearing a lot of “hissing” about France’s 75% tax hike proposal. News articles tell us that business executives are planning to leave France because of high taxes. And yes, looking at other countries, France’s taxes are high. The new 75% rate would move France to the top of a list of high income tax countries that currently is led by Sweden, Japan, the UK and Germany.

A progressive tax, the 75% rate reflects an approach through which those who earn more pay a higher rate than people who earn less. For France and most other countries, the top rate is marginal. It just applies to a slice of income at the top of what an individual earns.

In France, currently, if you earn €100,000, then…

  • The first €5963 of your paycheck has a 0% income tax.
  • The next layer of earnings between €5964 – €11,896 is taxed at 5.5%.
  • Then, for the slice that is between €11,897 – €26,420, 14%.
  • And, for earnings between €26,421 and €70,830, 30%.
  • Finally, everything above €70,830 has a 41% rate.

 

Now, the new law would mean that on the amount you earn above €1,000,000, you give back 75% to the government.

This table from the NY Times provides a specific example:

A French Millionaire’s Taxes: With and Without the 75% Proposed Rate

A family with 2 children

Current Tax Law

(In euros)

Proposed Tax Law

(in euros)

Gross Salary

2,224,694

2,224,694

Income Taxes

-837,242

-1,137,383

Employee Social Taxes

-289,210

-289,210

Take-home pay after taxes

1,098,242

798,101

Source: NY Times

The income tax is not France’s only tax. People also pay social taxes that relate primarily to healthcare, retirement and unemployment and a value added tax (sort of the equivalent of a sales tax) of 19.6%.

France’s tax approach represents considerable income redistribution from those who earn it to those who spend it for medical reasons, as old age pensions and when they are unemployed. Looking at income redistribution (below), you can see that France is among those countries with more equality.

Equality Among Selected Countries For Disposable Income: Ranking From First (most equal) to Fifth (least equal)

#1

The Most Equal

#2

Almost as Equal

#3

Less Equal

#4

Even Less Equal

#5

The Least Equal

Denmark

Iceland

Norway

Sweden

Switzerland

Belgium

Czech Republic

Estonia

Finland

France

Italy

Slovak Republic

Slovenia

Austria

Germany

Greece

Hungary

Japan

Korea

Luxembourg

Poland

Spain

Australia

Canada

Ireland

Netherlands

New Zealand

UK

Chile

Israel

Mexico

Portugal

Turkey

USA

Source: OECD

France’s President Hollande says his tax proposal is all about social justice. Disagreeing, others believe that the income redistribution he proposes will further diminish France’s stagnant economic growth, worsen its fiscal slide, and thereby harm social welfare.

Your opinion?

And finally, nearby states seem to delight when their neighbors raise taxes. Belgian business people are smiling as French inquiries about home purchases and business investment increase. (Similarly, when Illinois raised taxes, Wisconsin said, “Come here!”)

News stories about the 75% proposal and the facts I cite are here and here. You might also want to look at this OECD paper on income inequality. My information on French tax  rates came from here.

Please note this post was slightly edited after it first appeared.

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Olympic Medal...olympics_000019262071XSmall

If you want to predict Olympic medal winners, you might look at economic data.

A report on the Olympics from Goldman Sachs suggests that nations with a superior economic growth environment will increase their share of Olympic gold medals in London. Quantifying political, macroeconomic and microeconomic conditions, macroeconomic stability, human capital and technology, Goldman compared economics and medals for multiple years.

Their results?

Predictably, developed nations win more. But also, for less developed nations, increasing per capita income means more medals as does being a host nation. Below you can see the boost predicted for the UK.

In addition, some sports correlate more closely to the economic variables than others. The Goldman researchers concluded that “canoeing, diving, fencing, swimming, table tennis,” equestrianism, gymnastics and wresting have an economic connection. By contrast, football, softball and triathlon have not.

Olympics Medal Statistics and Predictions from the Goldman Olympics Report

Country

GDP Size

By Rank

2011

Olympic

Medals

By Rank

Beijing

2008

Number of

Olympic

Gold Medals

Beijing

2008

Number of

Olympic

Gold Medals

Predictions

2012

USA

1

1

36

37

China

2

2

51

33

Japan

3

9

9

8

Germany

4

6

16

14

France

5

6

7

14

Brazil

6

13

3

6

UK

7

4

19

30

Italy

8

8

8

10

Russia

9

3

23

25

Canada

10

12

3

6

*Australia had 15 gold medals in 2008; 14 is the Goldman prediction for this year.

Fun to contemplate, the predictions vary. You might enjoy looking at the Goldman report, these WSJ predictions and this comparison of several. For another economic analysis of Olympic medal winners from a Colorado College professor, I suggest looking at Dan Johnson’s predictions.  And for per capita income data, this World Bank site is ideal. Finally, I wonder how much the euro zone fiscal turmoil has affected Olympic budgets. I have read that Greece’s Olympic spending has plummeted.

 

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