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Tag Archives: US Department of Agriculture

Affecting the cost of animal feed and lowering the amount of milk from cows, the drought is pushing up milk prices.

When I enjoy Mt. Tam Cowgirl Creamery Cheese (It’s great!) from California, I never think about 4b. Actually, until yesterday, I never heard of California’s “Class 4b” milk regulation.

“Class 4b,” a part of our nation’s network of pricing rules for milk, is creating huge problems for California dairy farmers. Faced with plunging milk prices and soaring corn prices that made the price of their feed skyrocket in 2009, California dairy farmers were hit especially hard. Now, although average US milk wholesale prices are up, these dairy farmers say the 4b price–the price that determines how much local cheese producers pay them–is too low for them to benefit. As a result, many have moved their herds out of the state, others are going out of business, and all are asking for higher prices.

You can predict the cheese producer response. They say if the price of their milk rises, they will leave California.

Some background: Looking way back to the mid-19th century, when more people started moving from the farm to the city, having a steady supply of milk was a problem. A host of unpredictable supply side variables including seasonal variation, the perishable character of fresh milk, and cost fluctuations meant production from one month to the next was up and down. To make a very long and complicated story much shorter, we can just say that the federal government decided that some price supports that established a minimum were the answer.

Then, states like California implemented their own system of minimum prices. And that takes us to 4b. Divided in numbered classes, 4b just represents a certain category of milk (based partially on fat content).

Finally, as economists, we cannot conclude without a brief look at a price support. As you can see, the horizontal line, the artificial price suggested by government, is above the price that the market might create. As a result, with the quantity supplied greater than the quantity demanded, a surplus is created.

Price Floors Usually Increase the Quantity Supplied

 

Sources and Resources: If you would like to learn more about milk price supports, I discovered an excellent and readable USDA document that describes the history, looks at states like California, the future and describes some pricing formulas. The complexity is mind boggling. As for the clash between cheese and milk producers, these articles, here and here, provide the facts.

 

 

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Affecting the cost of animal feed and lowering the amount of milk from cows, the drought is pushing up milk prices.

Discussing the impact of this summer’s drought on pizza, Stephen Colbert said, “It is one thing for global warming to make the sea levels rise but nobody told me it could make my cheese levels recede.”

Colbert was reacting to an economist at the US Department of Agriculture’s Research Service saying, “…you’ll see less cheese on pizzas and in salad bars.” The reason? In 90 degree temperatures cows produce less milk, dairy farmers need costly sprinklers and fans, and the drought has also driven up the price of animal feed. As a result, milk is more expensive and more expensive milk means more expensive cheese.

Just imagine your cheese supply curve. When the cost of production increases, the upward sloping supply curve shifts to the left and crosses the downward sloping demand curve at a higher equilibrium price and a lower quantity.

Colbert also suggested that farmers switch to drought resistant crops like sun-dried tomatoes and raisins.

Because of the drought that is affecting close to 63% of the continental US (please see map below), in addition to dairy industry costs, 52% of the corn crop was in poor or very poor condition, more cattle was slaughtered because of skyrocketing feed costs, the price of ethanol has risen, and the northbound barge trip between New Orleans and Memphis takes 3-5 extra days. (With lower water levels, barges need to shed weight and also take turns moving through shallow areas.)

If the drought continues, the Department of Agriculture predicts a 3-4% hike in food prices for 2013. Since last year, food prices have gone up 2.5% to 3.5%. And finally, very interestingly, economist Ed Yardeni explains in his blog why QE3, the drought and the GDP are related. As with food prices, it all relates to inflation.

Sources and Resources:

My stats, the stories and the map below are from either this WSJ article, weather.com, or this USA Today report. A video excerpt from the Colbert Report was the source of all that Stephen Colbert said. Looking at my sources and their links, you will see the multiple ripple of impacts, ranging from pizza to crop insurance to a miniature golf business, that this drought has created.

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