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Tag Archives: Venezuela

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One shopper had to search for toilet paper in 6 stores. Another arrived in a supermarket just after a delivery but was limited to a 4-roll maximum. Attempting to deal with its toilet paper shortage, the Venezuelan government has said it would import 50 million rolls. Because the country’s monthly demand for toilet paper is 125 million rolls, I wonder if 50 million is enough.

In addition…

Venezuela’s Central Bank Scarcity Index indicates that shortages of other items like cooking oil, sugar and cornflour are worsening. Just above 21%, the scarcity index tells us that for every 100 goods, 21 are not available in markets. Correspondingly, with an annual inflation rate close to 30%, purchasing power is sinking.

Venezuela's Scarcity Index from the Atlantic

So where are they? Venezuela’s President Maduro continues to cope with the perverse incentives that are the legacy of his deceased predecessor, Hugo Chavez. Even the recent increase in capped prices by 20% for several basics like milk, cheese, butter and beef had little impact. The gap remains between quantity demanded and quantity supplied.

Even with a 20% increase in prices, if the ceiling is below equilibrium, shortages result.

Even with a 20% increase in prices, if the ceiling is below equilibrium, shortages result.

Our bottom line? Price ceilings lead to immense dysfunction:

  • Too much quantity demanded.
  • Not enough quantity supplied.
  • Huge transaction costs spent when people waste time searching store after store.
  • Inadequate resources allocated to developing oil wealth.
  • Factories operating way below capacity.

Sources and Resources: There are so many articles about the toilet paper shortages in Venezuela. Reuters, the BBC, Bloomberg all had something to say while my Scarcity Index is from The Atlantic.

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Sort of like lunch and parking, there is no such thing as free gas.

Lunch? Even when someone else takes the check, you have sacrificed time or a future payback to that person.

Parking? Time spent looking for a space and unproductive use of valuable urban real estate are 2 costs of free parking.

And now, we can add gasoline to the list.

Although Venezuelans enjoy 4 cents a gallon gasoline and 5.8 cents for premium, they pay in a host of other ways. Starting with oil production, the cost is inefficiency. Low prices mean less revenue that could be used to update facilities and produce more oil. Thinking of the law of demand, when something is cheap, we use more of it, even when its marginal utility plunges. Venezuelans use almost 7 times as much gasoline as neighboring Colombians who pay a market price.

Less tangibly, cheap gas creates perverse incentives. Driving unnecessarily, Venezuelans emit more greenhouse gases. Seeing the opportunity to sell gas to neighboring Colombians, they smuggle. In large, gas guzzling 1970s vehicles with full tanks, “pimpineros” drive across the border. If you pay close to 5 cents and then sell it for $2, depending on how much gas you burn in traffic jams, you can earn $25 a day.

And finally, the distortion takes us to post-Chavez politics. A mainstay of the Hugo Chavez regime, gas subsidies will be tough to eliminate. Any economically savvy candidate who wants to diminish government support and grow the economy will probably be defeated. As a result, the cost of the cheap gas is also wise leadership that will grow GDP (below from WSJ).

Fossil Fuel Subsidy-GDP Cost

Not quite as high as in Venezuela, fossil fuel subsidies that help consumers abound in developing nations. Areas in red indicate the world’s highest fossil fuel subsidy rates, 2009-2011 (based on IEA data).

Areas in red indicate the world's highest fossil fuel subsidy rates.

Fossil Fuel Subsidies based on IEA data from

Any benefits? The WSJ tells us that one 2011 report concluded that Yemeni fossil fuel subsidies diminished their poverty rate by making more money available to spend elsewhere.

Still, whether looking at cost or benefit, fossil fuel subsidies that benefit the consumer will always return us to the law of demand. When price falls, we are willing and able to buy more because we experience a lower opportunity cost.

Sources and Resources: Two excellent articles on fossil fuel subsidies were here, at WSJ.com (the source of my Venezuela facts and the GDP graph above) and here in the Guardian. Complementing the articles, more data and discussion are at the IEA website, in an OECD report (source for map), and at the Institute for Energy Research, my source for the bottom graph. In addition, this interactive map from National Geographic is fascinating and includes supply side subsidies like those in the US. Finally, this econlife post has more on Venezuelan market distortions.

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Venezuela Map

The Venezuelan economy in 3 pictures:

Price Ceilings

Price Ceilings

Observed during October, 2010, the sign shows that there is a price ceiling for Diana Oil. At 4,73 bolivars, the ceiling is 32% less than 7 bolivars, its “capitalist price.” As always, price ceilings lead to long lines and shortages.

However, for retirees and others with more free time, the cost of the inconvenience has been minimal.

Subsidized Gas Prices

Subsidized Gas Prices

At 4 cents (!!!) a gallon for regular, Venezuelan gas is heavily subsidized.

In addition to such inexpensive fuel, poor Venezuelans enjoy free neighborhood health clinics free housing and government pensions. As a result, the poverty rate is down and Venezuela is faring better on the UN’s Index of Human Development.

Ranked #19 by transparency.or, Venezuela is one of the most corrupt countries in the world.

A score of 19 from Transparency International indicates that Venezuela is among the more corrupt countries in the world.

The subsidies, the price ceilings, the wealth redistribution, and nationalized oil fields have distorted the normal incentives created by demand and supply. The result is a pervasive corruption that constrains economic growth.

Perhaps one Bloomberg headline sums it all up: “Hugo Chavez, R.I.P.: He Empowered the Poor and Gutted Venezuela.”

A final question: Can short term benefits from income redistribution be worth the tradeoff of long term economic growth?

Sources and Resources: Bloomberg, here and here, has excellent articles on the Chavez legacy. My gas price information and picture were from CNN Canada, the price sign from N. Gregory Mankiw’s blog and here is the UN’s Human Development Index. I do recommend looking at Transparency International’s corruption index.

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Reading that a Venezuelan retiree did not mind the food lines, I started thinking about how President Chavez’s price controls have changed incentives. The retiree, who has more time than money, now has the incentive to stand in line. Meanwhile, a business owner, seeing profits erased by price controls has the incentive to produce less.
When a ceiling on prices increases the quantity that people demand while decreasing the quantity that producers supply, the result is Venezuelan shortages of the basics like powdered milk, beef, chicken, vegetable oil and sugar.

The bottom line: A government established price creates distorted incentives for buyers and sellers. The long lines, pajama tops without buttons, and grouchy salespeople that characterized the former Soviet Union are perfect examples of the results of distorted incentives.

This NY Times article tells more about price controls in Venezuela. Also, you might enjoy seeing this sign from a Venezuelan store that is posted here.

*This entry was edited after it was first posted.

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Venezuela has 2 basic economic problems:

  1. The law of supply: Because price and quantity move in the same direction, if price goes down, then producers provide less. This takes us to Venezuela’s 27.1% inflation rate. President Hugo Chavez responded by controlling the prices of many consumer goods and services. One result? Importers pay the soaring world price for corn, they receive the Venezuelan government’s controlled price for corn oil, and supermarkets have shortages.
  2. The law of demand: Because price and quantity have an inverse relationship, consumers want to buy more when price goes down. Here, Marketwatch tells us that government subsidized gas prices are so low in Venezuela that President Chavez chastised Venezuelans for excessive driving. At $.12 a gallon, it costs $2.40 to fill a 20-gallon tank! Complementary products? Venezuela had unusually high Hummer sales.

So, when, Transparency.org says that Venezuela ranks near the bottom on world corruption scores and the Index of Economic Freedom indicates business activity is limited by multiple government constraints, the results can be explained by supply and demand.

The Economic Lesson

This takes us to the three basic economic questions that every country needs to answer:

  1. What will be produced?
  2. How will goods and services be produced?
  3. Who will receive income?

When government distorts supply and demand decisions by controlling prices, it changes the answers to the 3 economic questions.

An Economic Question: How could price controls change the answers to the 3 economic questions?

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