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Tag Archives: World Bank

texting is 20 years old

Only 3 years ago in sub-Saharan Africa, more than two-thirds of all roads were unpaved, three-quarters of the population was without electricity, and there were 3 landline phones per 100 people.

Enter the cell phone.

As of 2010, in low and middle income economies, an average of 72 of every 100 people had a mobile phone subscription. In a 2010 article, economists Jenny Aker and Isaac Mbiti present wonderful examples of how cell phones can transform life. ”In Ghana, farmers in Tamale are able to send a text message to learn corn and tomato prices in Accra, over 400 kilometers away. In Niger, day laborers are able to call acquaintances in Benin to find out about job opportunities without making the US$40 trip. In Malawi, those affected by HIV and AIDS can receive text messages daily, reminding them to take their medicines on schedule.” (p. 207)

More generally, the impact of widespread mobile phone use could include:

  • increasing market efficiency
  • improving supply chain oversight
  • creating new jobs
  • reducing risk exposure through more communication
  • delivering necessary services (health, finance, education)

 

Still though, Aker and Mbiti conclude that we cannot be sure of the mobile phone’s impact. By contrast, development economist Jeffrey Sachs suggests that it will be a transformative technology.

Rewinding for a moment to the US economy, I keep thinking of our development sequence. Moving from the first 17th and 18th century roads to 19th century canals and railroads, by 1900, the US had a transportation infrastructure. Add to that the telegraph, telephone and spread of electricity. And now, mobile phones.

Today, instead, leapfrogging older communications technology,  will the mobile phone stimulate sub-Saharan economic development?

A Final Fact: During the week of March 1, 2012, China reached its 1 billionth mobile phone subscription. The Economist says China’s numbering system can generate 100 billion phone numbers.

Sources and Resources: The 2010 Aker/Mbiti article and the 2012 World Bank report provided my information on mobile phones through a wealth of ideas and detail. This Economist Daily Chart comparing mobile phones in China, India and the US is also interesting.

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Chinese Consumers and Fresh Apples

Our story ends with the recent 2030 Word Bank Report on Chinese economic growth. But we have to start with sunflower seeds.

There once was a poor Chinese farmer who believed he could excel at nothing but sunflower seeds. Traditionally sold in stores, in bulk with other types of nuts, sunflower seeds had been nothing unusual. But then calling them Idiot’s Seeds, the farmer, Mr. Nian stir-fried, salted, and packaged them. And soon, during the 1980s, millions of people in China were munching Idiot’s Seeds as they watched TV or played cards.

In Capitalism With Chinese Characteristics, an M.I.T. scholar uses Mr. Nian as an example of the prototypical 1980s Chinese entrepreneur. Saying that entrepreneurs like Mr. Nian initially fueled Chinese economic growth, he then takes the reader to the 1990s when SOEs (state owned enterprises) become dominant. Yes, he says, the GDP still grew but a closer look reveals that the impact on the population was harmful with education and income suffering.

Now, with China 2030, we see how important it will be for the Chinese economy again to “rebalance” the role of government in order to sustain economic growth. There are 3 versions of the report: an executive summary with 3 pages, a longer summary with 73, and then the entire 438 page report. All take us to the 6 strategic policy areas that need to change.

Here, econlife looks at China’s SOEs.

The Economic Lesson

In Good Capitalism Bad Capitalism, economists Baumol, Litan and Schramm name 4 categories (pp. 60-61) of capitalism:

  • “state-guided” where government dominates
  • “oligarchic” where small groups have power and affluence
  • “big-firm capitalism” dominated by giant enterprise
  • “entrepreneurial capitalism” with innovation from small firms the dominant force

When China 2030 talks about rebalancing the Chinese economy, they are referring to a state-guided capitalism that needs more so to emphasize entrepreneurial capitalism.

An Economic Question: Thinking of Adam Smith, is state-guided capitalism really a market economy?

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What if you made a huge amount of money available for projects in Northern Africa and the Middle East? Let’s say you successfully expanded airport capacity in Cairo or raised incomes in rural Tunisian communities? The World Bank can claim these successes.

And yet, they are saying that their development mission has to involve more. In an NPR/Marketplace interview, World Bank president Robert Zoellick said the World Bank’s challenge was to “connect citizen involvement with the development challenge.”

Adding specifics during this past weekend’s World Bank spring meetings, Mr. Zoellick named soaring food prices and joblessness in Northern Africa and the Middle East as primary concerns. Also, citing the “youth bulge,” that would require 40 million new jobs during the next 10 years, he expressed support for short-term job creation.

The Economic Lesson

Not really a bank, the World Bank is still a financial intermediary. Borrowing in world financial markets, it raises money. Then, it loans its funds to developing nations. Technically called the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), it was created in 1944.

You might want to look here to see a fascinating graph of the different national currencies that fund their projects.

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Sort of like jumbo shrimp and a working vacation, we could say that an authoritarian market is an oxymoron.The chief economist of the World Bank, Justin Yifu Lin, would disagree.

As described in a recent New Yorker Magazine profile, Dr. Lin has an unusual background. Born in Taiwan, he defected to the mainland, studied economics at the University of Chicago, and ran a think tank at Peking University. As chief economist at the World Bank, he occupies a position once held by Nobel Laureat Joseph Stiglitz and former Treasury Secretary, Harvard president, and Obama economic advisor Laurence Summers. 

The profile was so very fascinating because of its inherent contradictions. Dr. Lin, attended the University of Chicago, the center of free market studies, in order to become an expert on China’s authoritarian capitalism.  Discussing China, he says that government is necessary for the success of its market. At the World Bank, he suggests that China’s successes can serve as a prototype for other developing nations.

Recent headlines about Chinese currency manipulation, about Chinese acquisitions of western firms, about the Chinese economy becoming #2 in the world all return us to authoritarian capitalism. Is it working?

I suspect Adam Smith would say “No”. Your opinion?

The Economic Lesson

When he described an 18th century market economy, Adam Smith cited several basic characteristics. 1) Self-interest propels economic activity. 2) Competition controls self-interest. 3) Division of labor facilitates efficiency, invention, and mass production. 4) Except for justice, money, and defense, government should adhere to a laissez-faire policy.

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In Part 1 of the Teaching Company course, “America and the New Global Economy,” Professor Timothy Taylor discusses the origination of the euro. Four goals he says were sought: free movement of people, goods, services, and capital.  Central especially to people and goods moving from country to country was not only a common currency but also roads.
So, I returned to the Google World Bank statistics site to check out the proportion of European roads that were paved.  Starting with the world, I discovered that the overall average in 2000 was 36.3 percent.  Then, I added the original 12 eurozone countries: Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Neatherlands, Portugal, and Spain.  Seven nations were at 99 percent or higher!  Only one was close to 60 percent.  Which ones?  I suggest you go there to look.

 

The Economic Lesson
A transportation infrastructure is crucial for economic growth.  In the United States, we started with roads, soon had a canal infrastructure, and then saw a railroad network develop. A eurozone goal, free movement across varied economic regions, was achieved in the United States long before the end of the 19th century.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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