World Cup Soccer and Stock Markets

by Elaine Schwartz    •    Jun 23, 2010    •    663 Views

Referring to a basic investing strategy, Vanguard founder, Jack Bogle said, “Buy and hold forever”. If you disagree, though, you might want to hear about the impact of World Cup soccer on stock markets.

In a recent academic study, researchers found that team losses cause stock market declines. With more important games precipitating steeper plunges, a team loss during a World Cup elimination stage resulted in its home stock market dropping close to .5%. The reason, the study’s authors say, is investor mood. By contrast, winning has no impact.

Academics also have identified a correlation between rising stock markets and Ramadan, St. Patrick’s Day, and Rosh Hashanah (but not Yom Kippur). A fourth study found that morning sunshine brings a higher stock market close.

Might I suggest a new investing strategy?

The Economic Lesson

While the complexities of investing lead me to question these studies, they do take me to behavioral economics. In 2002, Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics for his work in behavioral economics. Concluding that we were not always as rational as some economists believed, he examined a cognitive side to our behavior that created unexpected economic results.


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